Bao Jiawei, Stevens Bjorn, Kluft Lukas, Muller Caroline
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, Hamburg, 20146, Germany.
Institute of Science and Technology Austria, Am Campus 1, Klosterneuburg, 3400, Austria.
Sci Adv. 2024 Feb 23;10(8):eadj6801. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adj6801.
Tropical precipitation extremes and their changes with surface warming are investigated using global storm resolving simulations and high-resolution observations. The simulations demonstrate that the mesoscale organization of convection, a process that cannot be physically represented by conventional global climate models, is important for the variations of tropical daily accumulated precipitation extremes. In both the simulations and observations, daily precipitation extremes increase in a more organized state, in association with larger, but less frequent, storms. Repeating the simulations for a warmer climate results in a robust increase in monthly-mean daily precipitation extremes. Higher precipitation percentiles have a greater sensitivity to convective organization, which is predicted to increase with warming. Without changes in organization, the strongest daily precipitation extremes over the tropical oceans increase at a rate close to Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. Thus, in a future warmer state with increased organization, the strongest daily precipitation extremes over oceans increase at a faster rate than CC scaling.
利用全球风暴解析模拟和高分辨率观测资料，对热带极端降水及其随地表变暖的变化进行了研究。模拟结果表明，对流的中尺度组织（这一过程无法用传统全球气候模式进行物理表征）对热带日累计极端降水的变化至关重要。在模拟和观测中，日极端降水在更有组织的状态下增加，与更大但频率更低的风暴有关。对更暖气候重复进行模拟，导致月平均日极端降水显著增加。较高的降水百分位数对对流组织更敏感，预计其会随变暖而增加。在组织无变化的情况下，热带海洋上最强的日极端降水以接近克劳修斯-克拉珀龙（CC）标度的速率增加。因此，在未来变暖且组织增加的状态下，海洋上最强的日极端降水增加速率比CC标度更快。
