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基于云模型和改进组合赋权法的煤与瓦斯突出危险性评价

Coal and gas protrusion risk evaluation based on cloud model and improved combination of assignment.

作者信息

Qi Yun, Xue Kailong, Wang Wei, Cui Xinchao, Liang Ran, Wu Zewei

机构信息

College of Mechanical Engineering and Automation, Liaoning University of Technology, Jinzhou, 121001, People's Republic of China.

School of Coal Engineering, Shanxi Datong University, Datong, 037000, Shanxi, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2024 Feb 24;14(1):4551. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-55382-1.

Abstract

The proposed study presents an enhanced combination weighting cloud model for accurate assessment of coal and gas outburst risks. Firstly, a comprehensive evaluation index system for coal and gas outburst risks is established, consisting of primary indicators such as coal rock properties and secondary indicators including 13 factors. Secondly, the improved Analytic Hierarchy Process (IAHP) based on the 3-scale method and the improved CRITIC based on indicator correlation weight determination method are employed to determine subjective and objective weights of evaluation indicators respectively. Additionally, the Lagrange multiplier method is introduced to fuse these weights in order to obtain optimal weights. Subsequently, a prominent danger assessment model is developed based on cloud theory. Finally, using a mine in Hebei Province as an example, the results obtained from IAHP combined with improved CRITIC weighting method are compared with those from traditional AHP method and AHP-CRITIC combination weighting method. The findings demonstrate that among all methods considered, IAHP combined with improved CRITIC exhibits superior performance in terms of distribution expectation Ex, entropy value En, and super entropy He within cloud digital features; thus indicating that the risk level of coal and gas outbursts in this particular mine can be classified as general risk. These evaluation results align well with actual observations thereby validating the effectiveness of this approach. Consequently, this constructed model enables rapid yet accurate determination of coal and gas outburst risks within mines.

摘要

本研究提出了一种用于准确评估煤与瓦斯突出风险的增强型组合加权云模型。首先,建立了煤与瓦斯突出风险综合评价指标体系,包括煤岩性质等一级指标和13个因素等二级指标。其次,分别采用基于三标度法的改进层次分析法(IAHP)和基于指标关联权重确定法的改进CRITIC法来确定评价指标的主观权重和客观权重。此外,引入拉格朗日乘数法对这些权重进行融合,以获得最优权重。随后,基于云理论建立了突出危险性评估模型。最后,以河北省某煤矿为例,将IAHP结合改进CRITIC加权法得到的结果与传统层次分析法(AHP)和AHP-CRITIC组合加权法得到的结果进行比较。结果表明,在所有考虑的方法中,IAHP结合改进CRITIC在云数字特征中的分布期望Ex、熵值En和超熵He方面表现出优越的性能;从而表明该煤矿煤与瓦斯突出的风险等级可归类为一般风险。这些评价结果与实际观测结果吻合良好,从而验证了该方法的有效性。因此,该构建的模型能够快速准确地确定矿井内煤与瓦斯突出风险。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/73d3/11350066/c465a93f609e/41598_2024_55382_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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