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基于组合权重-二维云模型的跨采空区隧道施工风险评估研究

Study on risk assessment of tunnel construction across mined-out region based on combined weight-two-dimensional cloud model.

作者信息

Liang Haibin, Xie Xiong-Gang, Chen Xuexi, Li Qingsong, He Wenjie, Yang Zhicheng, Ren Meirong

机构信息

College of Mining, Guizhou University, Guiyang, 550025, China.

Mining Safety College, North China Institute of Science and Technology, Langfang, 065201, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Feb 28;15(1):7233. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-90837-z.

Abstract

In this thesis, a risk assessment framework based on the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model is proposed for the risk assessment problem of crossing the mined-out region in tunnel construction. The subjective weights of the indicators are determined by the G1 method, the objective weights are determined by the improved CRITIC method combined with the Random Forest (RF) machine learning method, and the combined weights are calculated using the game-theoretic combination assignment method. On this basis, a two-dimensional cloud model was constructed to merge the risk frequency and consequence degree to comprehensively assess tunnel construction's safety risk across the mined-out region. Taking the construction project of Huayingshan Tunnel construction in Linshui County of Sichuan Province as an example, the risk cloud eigenvalues of each assessment indicator were derived through expert scoring and weight calculation, and the risk cloud diagram was drawn using MATLAB software for analysis. The results show that the risk of Huayingshan Tunnel construction is medium risk, in which environmental and geological safety, construction safety, and structural stability are the main risk sources. This thesis provides a new method for the safety assessment of tunnel construction across the mined-out region, which can effectively assess and control the safety risk during tunnel construction.

摘要

本文针对隧道施工穿越采空区的风险评估问题,提出了一种基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型的风险评估框架。指标的主观权重通过G1法确定,客观权重通过结合随机森林(RF)机器学习方法的改进CRITIC法确定,并采用博弈论组合赋值法计算组合权重。在此基础上,构建二维云模型融合风险发生频率和后果程度,对隧道施工穿越采空区的安全风险进行综合评估。以四川省邻水县华蓥山隧道建设项目为例,通过专家打分和权重计算得出各评估指标的风险云特征值,利用MATLAB软件绘制风险云图进行分析。结果表明,华蓥山隧道施工风险为中度风险,其中环境与地质安全、施工安全和结构稳定性是主要风险源。本文为隧道施工穿越采空区的安全评估提供了一种新方法,能够有效评估和控制隧道施工期间的安全风险。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/d807/11871022/aba1c90ecac0/41598_2025_90837_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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