Simulation modelling of the population dynamics of cereal aphids.

A simulation model explaining the population dynamics of the grain aphid (Sitobion avenae), a serious pest of wheat in Western Europe, is described. The model includes the effects of crop development and some natural enemies on the biology of the aphid. It is concluded that although much of the population dynamics of the aphid, especially in relation to its host plant, is now well understood, many uncertainties still remain concerning natural enemies. As these organisms seem able to prevent cereal aphid outbreaks, in some years, these gaps are presently preventing the development of a reliable forecasting scheme.