Carter N
Biosystems. 1985;18(1):111-9. doi: 10.1016/0303-2647(85)90064-4.
A simulation model explaining the population dynamics of the grain aphid (Sitobion avenae), a serious pest of wheat in Western Europe, is described. The model includes the effects of crop development and some natural enemies on the biology of the aphid. It is concluded that although much of the population dynamics of the aphid, especially in relation to its host plant, is now well understood, many uncertainties still remain concerning natural enemies. As these organisms seem able to prevent cereal aphid outbreaks, in some years, these gaps are presently preventing the development of a reliable forecasting scheme.
本文描述了一个模拟模型，该模型解释了西欧小麦的一种严重害虫——麦长管蚜（Sitobion avenae）的种群动态。该模型包括作物发育和一些天敌对蚜虫生物学特性的影响。得出的结论是，虽然目前对蚜虫的许多种群动态，特别是与其寄主植物相关的动态已经有了很好的理解，但关于天敌仍存在许多不确定性。由于这些生物似乎能够在某些年份防止谷物蚜虫爆发，目前这些空白阻碍了可靠预测方案的制定。
