Mallick Bishawjit, Best Kelsea, Carrico Amanda, Ghosh Tuhin, Priodarshini Rup, Sultana Zakia, Samanta Gopa
Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
Environ Hazards. 2023;22(5):475-497. doi: 10.1080/17477891.2023.2195152. Epub 2023 Mar 29.
Migration is often understood to be a livelihood strategy to cope with the effects of environmental threats and climate change. Yet, the extent to which migration decisions differ due to the type, severity, and frequency of environmental events has been little explored. This paper employs household surveys in southwestern Bangladesh to explore this research gap. A multinominal regression model is used to simulate reported future migration decisions (200 sample households) in the context of both rapid-onset (i.e. cyclone and flood) and slow-onset (salinity, siltation, and riverbank erosion) environmental phenomena. Results show: i) previous disaster experience and increasing conflict in the community motivate migration in the near future in the context of slow-onset phenomena (salinity); (ii) economic strength and self-efficacy increase non-migration intention in both contexts of sudden and slow-onset events; and (iii) the extent and pattern of these influences on migration differ across demographics, including education, religion, and age. Importantly, this analysis shows that the relationship between migration decisions and the type, severity, and frequency of environmental events is influenced by socioeconomic conditions. Therefore, this research supports future adaptation planning specifically tailored to the type and exposure of extreme environmental events.
人们通常认为，迁移是一种应对环境威胁和气候变化影响的生计策略。然而，由于环境事件的类型、严重程度和发生频率不同而导致的迁移决策差异程度，目前鲜有人探究。本文通过对孟加拉国西南部家庭进行调查，来填补这一研究空白。运用多项回归模型，在快速发生的（即气旋和洪水）以及缓慢发生的（盐度、淤积和河岸侵蚀）环境现象背景下，模拟报告的未来迁移决策（200个样本家庭）。结果显示：（i）在缓慢发生的现象（盐度）背景下，以往的灾害经历和社区冲突加剧促使人们在不久的将来迁移；（ii）经济实力和自我效能感在突发和缓慢发生事件的背景下都会增加不迁移的意愿；（iii）这些对迁移的影响程度和模式在不同人口特征（包括教育程度、宗教信仰和年龄）中存在差异。重要的是，该分析表明，迁移决策与环境事件的类型、严重程度和发生频率之间的关系受社会经济条件影响。因此，本研究支持未来专门针对极端环境事件的类型和暴露情况制定适应计划。
