Wang Hong, Liu Junguo, Klaar Megan, Chen Aifang, Gudmundsson Lukas, Holden Joseph
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen 518055, China.
water@leeds, School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.
Science. 2024 Mar;383(6686):1009-1014. doi: 10.1126/science.adi9501. Epub 2024 Feb 29.
Riverine ecosystems have adapted to natural discharge variations across seasons. However, evidence suggesting that climate change has already impacted magnitudes of river flow seasonality is limited to local studies, mainly focusing on changes of mean or extreme flows. This study introduces the use of apportionment entropy as a robust measure to assess flow-volume nonuniformity across seasons, enabling a global analysis. We found that ~21% of long-term river gauging stations exhibit significant alterations in seasonal flow distributions, but two-thirds of these are unrelated to trends in annual mean discharge. By combining a data-driven runoff reconstruction with state-of-the-art hydrological simulations, we identified a discernible weakening of river flow seasonality in northern high latitudes (above 50°N), a phenomenon directly linked to anthropogenic climate forcing.
河流生态系统已经适应了季节间自然流量的变化。然而，表明气候变化已经影响河流流量季节性幅度的证据仅限于局部研究，主要集中在平均流量或极端流量的变化上。本研究引入了分配熵的使用，作为评估季节间流量体积不均匀性的一种稳健方法，从而能够进行全球分析。我们发现，约21%的长期河流测量站在季节性流量分布上表现出显著变化，但其中三分之二与年平均流量趋势无关。通过将数据驱动的径流重建与最先进的水文模拟相结合，我们确定了北半球高纬度地区（北纬50°以上）河流流量季节性明显减弱，这一现象与人为气候强迫直接相关。
