Wang Kaiwen, Liu Xiaomang, Cui Peng, Zhang Yangjian, Xie Jiaxin, Liu Changming, Gosling Simon N
Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Sci Adv. 2025 Aug 8;11(32):eadu8032. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adu8032. Epub 2025 Aug 6.
China's rivers support nearly 20% of the global population and supply freshwater for the world's largest proportion of industrial output and grain production. Despite their importance, nationwide streamflow changes and their drivers remain unclear because of challenges in accessing observations and disentangling the effects of climate, landscape, and human interventions. By combining data from 1046 hydrological stations with ISIMIP3a reconstructions, we provide a comprehensive national assessment showing that streamflow has declined across more than 70% of stations over the past six decades. Although regional heterogeneity exists, these declines are primarily concentrated in the north and driven by land use and cover change, further exacerbated by water abstraction, diversion, and regulation. In contrast, climate change and variability dominate the increases in streamflow, primarily in the south. Our results provide insights for water managers, helping them understand the multifaceted drivers of hydrological variability and inform the development of infrastructure and ecological projects to mitigate potential risks associated with declining streamflow.
中国的河流养活了近20%的全球人口,并为世界上最大比例的工业产出和粮食生产提供淡水。尽管它们很重要,但由于获取观测数据以及厘清气候、地貌和人类干预影响方面存在挑战,全国范围内的河流流量变化及其驱动因素仍不明晰。通过将1046个水文站的数据与ISIMIP3a重建数据相结合,我们进行了一次全面的全国评估,结果表明,在过去六十年里,超过70%的站点河流流量出现了下降。尽管存在区域异质性,但这些下降主要集中在北方地区,其驱动因素是土地利用和覆盖变化,而取水、调水和水利调控进一步加剧了这种下降。相比之下,气候变化和变率主导了河流流量的增加,主要集中在南方地区。我们的研究结果为水资源管理者提供了见解,帮助他们理解水文变化的多方面驱动因素,并为基础设施和生态项目的开发提供参考,以减轻与河流流量下降相关的潜在风险