Cox Peter M, Williamson Mark S, Friedlingstein Pierre, Jones Chris D, Raoult Nina, Rogelj Joeri, Varney Rebecca M
Faculty of Environment, Science, and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.
Nat Commun. 2024 Feb 29;15(1):1885. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-46137-7.
Earth System Models (ESMs) continue to diagnose a wide range of carbon budgets for each level of global warming. Here, we present emergent constraints on the carbon budget as a function of global warming, which combine the available ESM historical simulations and future projections for a range of scenarios, with observational estimates of global warming and anthropogenic CO emissions to the present day. We estimate mean and likely ranges for cumulative carbon budgets for the Paris targets of 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming of 812 [691, 933] PgC and 1048 [881, 1216] PgC, which are more than 10% larger than the ensemble mean values from the CMIP6 models. The linearity between cumulative emissions and global warming is found to be maintained at least until 4 °C, and is consistent with an effective Transient Climate Response to Emissions (eTCRE) of 2.1 [1.8, 2.6] °C/1000PgC, from a global warming of 1.2 °C onwards.
地球系统模型（ESMs）继续针对每个全球变暖水平诊断出广泛的碳预算范围。在此，我们提出作为全球变暖函数的碳预算的新出现的约束条件，它将一系列情景下可用的ESM历史模拟和未来预测与到目前为止全球变暖和人为碳排放的观测估计相结合。我们估计全球变暖1.5°C和2°C的巴黎目标的累积碳预算的均值和可能范围分别为812[691, 933]PgC和1048[881, 1216]PgC，这比CMIP6模型的集合平均值大10%以上。发现累积排放与全球变暖之间的线性关系至少维持到4°C，并且与从1.2°C的全球变暖开始的2.1[1.8, 2.6]°C/1000PgC的有效瞬态气候响应排放（eTCRE）一致。
