Salvador Pedro, Pey Jorge, Pérez Noemí, Alastuey Andrés, Querol Xavier, Artíñano Begoña
CIEMAT, Department of Environment - Joint Research Unit Atmospheric Pollution CIEMAT-CSIC, Av. Complutense 40, 28040 Madrid, Spain.
Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (IPE), CSIC, Av. Montañana 1005, 50059 Zaragoza, Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Apr 20;922:171307. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171307. Epub 2024 Feb 28.
Desert dust is currently recognized as a health risk factor. Therefore, the World Health Organization (WHO) is actively promoting the establishment of early warning systems for sand and dust storms. This study introduces a methodology to estimate the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring in eight different regions of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. In each region, a multilinear regression model was developed to calculate daily probabilities of dust events using three thermodynamic variables (geopotential thickness in the 1000-500 hPa layer, mean potential temperature between 925 and 700 hPa, and temperature anomalies at 850 hPa) as assessment parameters. All days with African dust transport over each study region were identified in the period 2001-2021 using a proven procedure. This information was then utilized to establish a functional relationship between the values of the thermodynamic parameters and the probability of African dust outbreaks occurring. The validation of this methodology involved comparing the daily probabilities of dust events generated by the models in 2001-2021 with the daily African dust contributions to PM regional background levels in each region. On average, daily dust contributions increased proportionally with the increase in daily probabilities, reaching zero for days with low probabilities. Furthermore, a well-defined seasonal evolution of probability values was observed in all regions, with the highest values in the summer months and the lowest in the winter period, ensuring the physical relevance of the models' results. Finally, upward trends were observed in all regions for the three thermodynamic parameters over 1940-2021. Thus, the probability of dust events development also increased in this period. It demonstrates that the aggravation of warm conditions in southern Europe in the last decades, have modified the frequency of North-African dust outbreaks over the western Mediterranean basin.
目前，沙漠尘土被视为一种健康风险因素。因此，世界卫生组织（WHO）正在积极推动建立沙尘暴预警系统。本研究介绍了一种方法，用于估算伊比利亚半岛和巴利阿里群岛八个不同地区发生非洲沙尘暴发的概率。在每个地区，利用三个热力学变量（1000 - 500百帕层的位势厚度、925至700百帕之间的平均位温以及850百帕处的温度异常）作为评估参数，建立了多线性回归模型来计算沙尘事件的每日概率。在2001 - 2021年期间，采用经过验证的程序确定了每个研究区域有非洲沙尘传输的所有日子。然后利用这些信息建立热力学参数值与非洲沙尘暴发发生概率之间的函数关系。该方法的验证包括将2001 - 2021年模型生成的沙尘事件每日概率与每个区域每日非洲沙尘对区域PM背景水平的贡献进行比较。平均而言，每日沙尘贡献随每日概率的增加而成比例增加，概率较低的日子贡献为零。此外，在所有区域都观察到概率值有明确的季节性变化，夏季月份概率值最高，冬季最低，这确保了模型结果的物理相关性。最后，在1940 - 2021年期间，所有区域的三个热力学参数均呈现上升趋势。因此，在此期间沙尘事件发生的概率也增加了。这表明，过去几十年南欧暖化加剧，改变了西地中海盆地北非沙尘暴发的频率。
