College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China; Laboratory of Computation and Analytics of Complex Management Systems(CACMS), Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China.
College of Management and Economics, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 Mar;355:120311. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120311. Epub 2024 Mar 2.
Variable renewable energy (VRE) is the most promising form of primary generation under a carbon neutrality target due to its environmental benefits, incentive policy, and technological progress. However, the increasing proportion of VRE generation, such as solar and wind power, has sharply increased integration cost and reduced power grid stability. This study uses portfolio theory to investigate China's optimal power generation portfolio by 2050 considering flexibility constraint and system cost, including technical and integration costs. The results demonstrate that non-fossil-fuel power generation technologies have cost and emission reduction advantages over fossil-fuel-based technologies. VRE generation technologies must be developed in synergy with other forms of power generation when considering flexibility requirement and integration cost. A complete phase-out of fossil-fuel power generation technologies in China appears unlikely in the study period. Gas-fired and coal-fired power generation are the pillar forms of power generation to meet future flexibility needs.
由于环境效益、激励政策和技术进步，可变可再生能源（VRE）是碳中和目标下最有前途的一次能源形式。然而，太阳能和风力等 VRE 发电的比例不断增加，大幅增加了整合成本，降低了电网稳定性。本研究使用投资组合理论，考虑灵活性约束和系统成本，包括技术和整合成本，探讨了 2050 年中国的最优发电源组合。结果表明，非化石燃料发电技术在成本和减排方面优于基于化石燃料的技术。在考虑灵活性要求和整合成本时，VRE 发电技术必须与其他形式的发电技术协同发展。在研究期间，中国完全淘汰化石燃料发电技术的可能性不大。燃气和燃煤发电是满足未来灵活性需求的支柱发电形式。
