Ravindra Khaiwal, Bhardwaj Sanjeev, Ram Chhotu, Goyal Akshi, Singh Vikas, Venkataraman Chandra, Bhan Subhash C, Sokhi Ranjeet S, Mor Suman
Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research (PGIMER), Chandigarh, 160012, India.
Department of Environment Studies, Panjab University, Chandigarh, 160014, India.
Heliyon. 2024 Feb 18;10(4):e26431. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26431. eCollection 2024 Feb 29.
The average global temperature is rising due to anthropogenic emissions. Hence, a systematic approach was used to examine the projected impacts of rising global temperatures on heatwaves in India and provide insights into mitigation and adaptation strategies. With over 24,000 deaths attributed to heatwaves from 1992 to 2015, there is an urgent need to understand India's vulnerabilities and prepare adaptive strategies under various emission scenarios.This situation is predicted to worsen as heatwaves become more frequent, intense, and long-lasting. Severe heatwaves can exacerbate chronic health conditions, vector-borne diseases, air pollution, droughts and other socio-economic pressures causing higher mortality and morbidity. Heatwaves with severe consequences have increased and are expected to become more frequent in Indian climatic and geographical conditions. As per the future projection studies, the temperature could rise ±1.2 C to ±3.5 C and will start reducing by the end of 2050. The study also provides data from the research that employs climatic models and statistical approaches for a more precise characterization of heat extremes and improved projections. Also, the study appraises the past, present and future heatwave trend projections. Most of these studies compute future projections using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). Limited systematic reports have been found using CMIP6, whereas the best-suited and widely used method was the RCP8.5. The study findings will aid in identifying the zones most susceptible to heatwave risk and provide actionable projections for policymakers to examine the existing evidence for developing proper planning and policy formulation, considering the future climate and temperature projections.
由于人为排放，全球平均气温正在上升。因此，采用了一种系统的方法来研究全球气温上升对印度热浪的预计影响，并深入了解缓解和适应策略。1992年至2015年期间，超过24000人死于热浪，因此迫切需要了解印度的脆弱性，并在各种排放情景下制定适应策略。随着热浪变得更加频繁、强烈和持久，这种情况预计会恶化。严重的热浪会加剧慢性健康状况、媒介传播疾病、空气污染、干旱和其他社会经济压力，导致更高的死亡率和发病率。在印度的气候和地理条件下，造成严重后果的热浪有所增加，而且预计会变得更加频繁。根据未来预测研究，气温可能上升±1.2摄氏度至±3.5摄氏度，并将在2050年底开始下降。该研究还提供了来自采用气候模型和统计方法的数据，以便更精确地描述极端高温并改进预测。此外，该研究评估了过去、现在和未来的热浪趋势预测。这些研究大多使用耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）模型和代表性浓度路径（RCP）来计算未来预测。使用CMIP6的系统性报告有限，而最合适且使用最广泛的方法是RCP8.5。研究结果将有助于确定最易受热浪风险影响的区域，并为政策制定者提供可采取行动的预测，以便他们在考虑未来气候和温度预测的情况下，审查现有证据以制定适当的规划和政策。
