Dutta Priya, Sathish Lm, Mavankar Dileep, Ganguly Partha Sarthi, Saunik Sujata
Indian Institute of Public Health Gandginagar, Gandhinagar, India.
Int J Occup Environ Med. 2020 Oct;11(4):188-195. doi: 10.34172/ijoem.2020.1991.
Although many studies have provided evidence for all-cause mortality attributed to extreme temperature across India, few studies have provided a systematic analysis of the association between all-cause mortality and temperature.
To estimate the risk associated with heat waves during two major heat waves of Nagpur occurred in 2010 and 2014.
The association between temperature and mortality was measured using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) and the attributable deaths associated with the heat waves with forward perspective in the DLNM framework.
From the ecological analysis, we found 580 and 306 additional deaths in 2010 and 2014, respectively. Moving average results also gave similar findings. DLNM results showed that the relative risk was 1.5 for the temperature above 45 °C; forward perspective analysis revealed that the attributable deaths during 2010 and 2014 were 505 and 376, respectively. Results from different methods showed that heat waves in different years had variable impacts for various reasons. However, all the results were consistent during 2010 and 2014; there were 30% and 14% extra-mortalities due to heat comparing to non-heat wave years.
We strongly recommend the city Government to implement the action plans based on this research outcome to reduce the risk from the heat wave in future.
尽管许多研究已提供印度极端温度导致全因死亡率的证据，但很少有研究对全因死亡率与温度之间的关联进行系统分析。
估计2010年和2014年那格浦尔两次主要热浪期间与热浪相关的风险。
使用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）测量温度与死亡率之间的关联，并在DLNM框架内从前瞻性角度分析与热浪相关的归因死亡。
从生态分析中，我们分别在2010年和2014年发现了580例和306例额外死亡。移动平均结果也得出了类似的发现。DLNM结果显示，温度高于45°C时相对风险为1.5；前瞻性分析表明，2010年和2014年的归因死亡分别为505例和376例。不同方法的结果表明，由于各种原因，不同年份的热浪影响各不相同。然而，2010年和2014年所有结果都是一致的；与非热浪年份相比，热浪导致的额外死亡率分别为３０％和14％。
我们强烈建议市政府根据这一研究结果实施行动计划，以降低未来热浪带来的风险。
