Geronikolou Stella, Zimeras Stelios, Tsitomeneas Stephanos, Chrousos George P
Clinical, Translational and Experimental Surgery Research Centre, Biomedical Research Foundation Academy of Athens, Athens, 11527, Greece.
University Research Institute of Maternal and Child Health & Precision Medicine, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, 11527, Greece.
F1000Res. 2024 Feb 29;12:115. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.124999.2. eCollection 2023.
Heatwaves represent the main indices of climate change, while mortality is one of the established markers of their human effects. For unknown reasons populations adapt to temperature variations/challenges differently. Thus, to allow better precision and prediction, heatwave evaluations should be enriched by historical context and local data.
The mortality data for 1987 were collected from the Piraeus municipality registry, whereas data for Athens were obtained from literature retrieved from PUBMED. Ambient characteristics were extracted from the Geronikolou's 1991 BSc thesis and the reports of national organizations. From the death events, the odds ratio and relative risk in Piraeus compared to the Athens were calculated. Finally, a simple neural network proposed the dominant ambient parameter of the heatwave effects in the city residents of each location.
The 1987 heatwave was more lethal (seven-fold) in Athens than in Piraeus and dependent on atmospheric nitric oxide (NO) concentration (with probability 0.999). In the case of Piraeus in 1987, ozone characterized the phenomenon (with probability 0.993).
The odds of dying due to a heatwave are highly dependent on lifestyle, population sensitivity to preventive measures and public health policy, while the phenomenon was mainly moderated by ozone in Piraeus in 1987, and NO in Athens irrespective of year.
热浪是气候变化的主要指标，而死亡率是其对人类影响的既定标志之一。由于未知原因，不同人群对温度变化/挑战的适应方式不同。因此，为了提高准确性和预测性，热浪评估应结合历史背景和当地数据。
1987年的死亡率数据来自比雷埃夫斯市登记处，而雅典的数据则从PUBMED检索的文献中获取。环境特征从Geronikolou 1991年的理学学士论文和国家组织的报告中提取。从死亡事件中，计算出比雷埃夫斯与雅典相比的优势比和相对风险。最后，一个简单的神经网络提出了每个地点城市居民中热浪影响的主要环境参数。
1987年的热浪在雅典的致死率（高出七倍）高于比雷埃夫斯，且取决于大气一氧化氮（NO）浓度（概率为0.999）。1987年在比雷埃夫斯的案例中，臭氧是该现象的特征（概率为0.993）。
因热浪死亡的几率高度依赖于生活方式、人群对预防措施的敏感性和公共卫生政策，而1987年在比雷埃夫斯该现象主要受臭氧调节，在雅典则受一氧化氮调节，与年份无关。
