DisasterDoc LLC, Lawrenceville, Georgia USA.
Emory University, Rollins School of Public Health, Atlanta, Georgia USA.
Prehosp Disaster Med. 2020 Jun;35(3):267-271. doi: 10.1017/S1049023X20000461. Epub 2020 Apr 15.
This manuscript summarizes the global incidence, exposures, mortality, and morbidity associated with extreme weather event (EWE) disasters over the past 50 years (1969-2018).
A historical database (1969-2018) was created from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) to include all disasters caused by seven EWE hazards (ie, cyclones, droughts, floods, heatwaves, landslides, cold weather, and storms). The annual incidence of EWE hazards and rates of exposure, morbidity, and mortality were calculated. Regression analysis and analysis of variance (ANOVA) calculations were performed to evaluate the association between the exposure rate and the hazard incidence rate, as well as the association between morbidity and mortality incidence rates and rates of human exposure and annual EWE incidence.
From 1969-2018, 10,009 EWE disasters caused 2,037,415 deaths and 3,998,466 cases of disease. A reported 7,350,276,440 persons required immediate assistance. Floods and storms were the most common. Most (89%) of EWE-related disaster mortality was caused by storms, droughts, and floods. Nearly all (96%) of EWE-related disaster morbidity was caused by cold weather, floods, and storms. Regression analysis revealed strong evidence (R2 = 0.88) that the annual incidence of EWE disasters is increasing world-wide, and ANOVA calculations identified an association between human exposure rates and hazard incidence (P value = .01). No significant trends were noted for rates of exposure, morbidity, or mortality.
The annual incidence of EWEs appears to be increasing. The incidence of EWEs also appears to be associated with rates of human exposure. However, there is insufficient evidence of an associated increase in health risk or human exposures to EWEs over time.
本手稿总结了过去 50 年（1969-2018 年）与极端天气事件（EWE）灾害相关的全球发病率、暴露率、死亡率和发病情况。
从紧急事件数据库（EM-DAT）创建了一个历史数据库（1969-2018 年），其中包括由七种 EWE 危害（即气旋、干旱、洪水、热浪、山体滑坡、寒冷天气和风暴）引起的所有灾害。计算了 EWE 危害的年发病率和暴露率、发病率和死亡率。进行回归分析和方差分析（ANOVA）计算，以评估暴露率与危害发生率之间的关系，以及发病率和死亡率与人类暴露率和 EWE 年发生率之间的关系。
从 1969-2018 年，10009 次 EWE 灾害造成 2037415 人死亡和 3998466 例疾病。报告有 7350276440 人需要立即援助。洪水和风暴最为常见。大多数（89%）与 EWE 相关的灾害死亡是由风暴、干旱和洪水造成的。几乎所有（96%）与 EWE 相关的灾害发病是由寒冷天气、洪水和风暴造成的。回归分析显示，有强有力的证据（R2=0.88）表明，全球范围内 EWE 灾害的年发病率正在增加，方差分析确定了人类暴露率与危害发生率之间的关联（P 值=0.01）。未发现暴露率、发病率或死亡率的显著趋势。
EWE 的年发病率似乎在增加。EWE 的发生率似乎也与人类暴露率有关。然而，没有足够的证据表明随着时间的推移，与 EWE 相关的健康风险或人类暴露量有增加。
