Shi Junwei, Wang Shiqi, Shao Jianli
College of Management Science and Engineering, Shandong Technology and Business University, Yantai, 264000, China.
Heliyon. 2024 Feb 13;10(5):e26344. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e26344. eCollection 2024 Mar 15.
As coal mines shift from shallow to deeper excavation, the number of mines facing the risk of rock burst disasters is gradually increasing. Rockburst, with their characteristics of vibration, suddenness, complexity, and unpredictability, make it increasingly difficult to prevent and control these disasters. Therefore, the challenges of preventing and controlling rock burst disasters are becoming more and more severe. This paper, based on the system-theoretic accident model and processes (STAMP) theory, extracts the causal factors affecting coal mine rock burst accidents. Using the interpretative structural modeling (ISM) and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method, the accident-causing factors are quantitatively assigned. By constructing model equations and drawing causal loop diagrams and stock-flow diagrams, the event is dynamically simulated and early warnings are issued. The results show that the control defects leading to the accident are analyzed from the perspectives of the government level, management level, grassroots level, physical layer, and the dynamic process of the accident. In the short term, safety investment in grassroots operations is the most effective control. In the long run, the most effective measure is for the management level to strengthen its supervisory work. By changing the input ratios of various variables, it can be seen that different variables in the system dynamics (SD) model have different impacts on coal mine rock burst accidents. It is necessary to continuously strengthen the implementation of the safety responsibility system, improve the work efficiency of the government and management level, and enhance the timeliness of emergency decision-making.
随着煤矿开采从浅部向深部转移，面临冲击地压灾害风险的矿井数量逐渐增加。冲击地压具有震动、突然、复杂和不可预测等特点，使得这类灾害的防治愈发困难。因此，冲击地压灾害防治面临的挑战日益严峻。本文基于系统理论事故模型与过程（STAMP）理论，提取影响煤矿冲击地压事故的致因因素。运用解释结构模型（ISM）和决策试验与评价实验室（DEMATEL）方法，对事故致因因素进行定量赋值。通过构建模型方程、绘制因果回路图和存量-流量图，对事件进行动态模拟并发布预警。结果表明，从政府层面、管理层面、基层层面、物理层面以及事故动态过程等角度分析了导致事故的控制缺陷。短期内，基层作业的安全投入是最有效的控制措施。从长远来看，最有效的措施是管理层面加强监管工作。通过改变各变量的输入比例可以看出，系统动力学（SD）模型中的不同变量对煤矿冲击地压事故有不同影响。有必要持续强化安全责任制度的落实，提高政府和管理层面的工作效率，增强应急决策的及时性。
