London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
UK Health Security Agency, London, UK.
BMC Med. 2024 Mar 6;22(1):100. doi: 10.1186/s12916-024-03276-4.
In 2021, whilst societies were emerging from major social restrictions during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the UK government instigated an Events Research Programme to examine the risk of COVID-19 transmission from attendance at cultural events and explore ways to enable people to attend a range of events whilst minimising risk of transmission. We aimed to measure any impact on risk of COVID-19 transmission from attendance at events held at or close to commercially viable capacity using routinely collected data.
Data were obtained on attendees at Phase 3 Events Research Programme events, for which some infection risk mitigation measures were in place (i.e. evidence of vaccination or a negative lateral flow test). Attendance data were linked with COVID-19 test result data from the UK Test and Trace system. Using a self-controlled case series design, we measured the within person incidence rate ratio for testing positive for COVID-19, comparing the rate in days 3 to 9 following event attendance (high risk period) with days 1 and 2 and 10-16 (baseline period). Rate ratios were adjusted for estimates of underlying regional COVID-19 prevalence to account for population level fluctuations in infection risk, and events were grouped into broadly similar types.
From attendance data available for 188,851 attendees, 3357 people tested positive for COVID-19 during the observation period. After accounting for total testing trends over the period, incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals for positive tests were 1.16 (0.53-2.57) for indoor seated events, 1.12 (0.95-1.30) for mainly outdoor seated events, 0.65 (0.51-0.83) for mainly outdoor partially seated events, and 1.70 (1.52-1.89) for mainly outdoor unseated multi-day events.
For the majority of event types studied in the third phase of the UK Events Research Programme, we found no evidence of an increased risk of COVID-19 transmission associated with event attendance. However, we found a 70% increased risk of infection associated with attendance at mainly outdoor unseated multi-day events. We have also demonstrated a novel use for self-controlled case series methodology in monitoring infection risk associated with event attendance.
2021 年，在各国社会摆脱 SARS-CoV-2 大流行带来的重大社会限制之际，英国政府启动了一项活动研究计划，以研究参加文化活动时 COVID-19 传播的风险，并探索在降低传播风险的同时使人们能够参加各种活动的方法。我们旨在使用常规收集的数据来衡量在接近商业可行性容量的情况下举办的活动中参加活动对 COVID-19 传播风险的任何影响。
获得了参加第三阶段活动研究计划活动的与会者的数据，这些活动采取了一些感染风险缓解措施（即接种疫苗或阴性侧向流动检测的证据）。参会者数据与英国测试和追踪系统的 COVID-19 检测结果数据相关联。使用自我对照病例系列设计，我们测量了 COVID-19 检测呈阳性的个体发病率比值，比较了活动后第 3 天至第 9 天（高风险期）与第 1 天和第 2 天以及第 10 天至第 16 天（基线期）的阳性检测率。为了考虑人群中感染风险的波动，根据对区域 COVID-19 流行率的估计，对率比进行了调整，并将活动分为大致相似的类型。
根据可获得的 188851 名与会者的参会数据，在观察期内有 3357 人 COVID-19 检测呈阳性。在考虑了整个时期的总检测趋势后，阳性检测的发病率比值和 95%置信区间为：室内就座活动为 1.16（0.53-2.57），主要户外就座活动为 1.12（0.95-1.30），主要户外部分就座活动为 0.65（0.51-0.83），主要户外无座多天活动为 1.70（1.52-1.89）。
对于英国活动研究计划第三阶段研究的大多数活动类型，我们没有发现与活动参与相关的 COVID-19 传播风险增加的证据。然而，我们发现，与参加主要户外无座多天活动相关的感染风险增加了 70%。我们还展示了自我对照病例系列方法在监测与活动参与相关的感染风险方面的新用途。
