Department of Graduate School, Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.
Department of Surgery and Urology, Hebei General Hospital, Shijiazhuang, Hebei, China.
BMJ Open. 2024 Mar 8;14(3):e080092. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-080092.
This study aims to present the clinical characteristics of young patients with bladder cancer (YBCa), evaluate related risk factors and construct a nomogram based on data acquired from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database.
Retrospective analysis of the SEER Database (2004-2015) for primary YBCa.
Data for YBCa (defined as those aged 40 years or younger) were extracted from the SEER Database, which covers approximately 28% of the US population, using the SEER*Stat software (V.8.4.0.1). A total of 1233 YBCa were identified. Patients were randomly assigned to the training and validation sets. The database included clinicopathological features, demographic information and survival outcomes, such as age, gender, race, year of diagnosis, marital status at diagnosis, primary tumour site, histological type, tumour grade, tumour, node, metastases (TNM) staging, treatment regimen for the primary tumour, cause of death and survival time. A nomogram model was developed using univariate and multivariate analyses. The prediction model was validated using the consistency index (C-index), calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic curve.
3-year, 5-year and 10-year overall survival (OS).
1233 YBCa from 2004 to 2015 were randomly assigned to the training set (n=865) and validation set (n=368). Age, marital status, tumour grade, histological type and TNM staging were included in the nomogram. The C-index of the model was 0.876. The 3-year, 5-year and 10-year OS area under the curve values for the training and validation sets were 0.949, 0.923 and 0.856, and 0.919, 0.890 and 0.904, respectively. Calibration plots showed that the nomogram had a robust predictive accuracy.
To our knowledge, this is the first study to establish a precise nomogram predicting the 3-year, 5-year and 10-year OS in YBCa based on multivariate analyses. Our nomogram may serve as a valuable reference for future diagnostics and individualised treatments for YBCa. However, external validation is warranted to assess the accuracy and generalisability of our prognostic model.
本研究旨在介绍膀胱癌年轻患者（YBCa）的临床特征，评估相关危险因素，并基于监测、流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库中的数据构建列线图。
对 SEER 数据库（2004-2015 年）中原发性 YBCa 的回顾性分析。
使用 SEER*Stat 软件（V.8.4.0.1）从 SEER 数据库中提取 YBCa（定义为年龄 40 岁或以下）的数据，该数据库涵盖了美国约 28%的人口。共确定了 1233 例 YBCa。患者被随机分配到训练集和验证集。该数据库包括临床病理特征、人口统计学信息和生存结果，如年龄、性别、种族、诊断年份、诊断时的婚姻状况、原发肿瘤部位、组织学类型、肿瘤分级、肿瘤、淋巴结、转移（TNM）分期、原发肿瘤的治疗方案、死亡原因和生存时间。使用单变量和多变量分析建立了列线图模型。使用一致性指数（C 指数）、校准曲线和接收者操作特征曲线验证了预测模型。
3 年、5 年和 10 年总生存率（OS）。
2004 年至 2015 年的 1233 例 YBCa 被随机分配到训练集（n=865）和验证集（n=368）。年龄、婚姻状况、肿瘤分级、组织学类型和 TNM 分期被纳入列线图。模型的 C 指数为 0.876。训练集和验证集的 3 年、5 年和 10 年 OS 曲线下面积值分别为 0.949、0.923 和 0.856，以及 0.919、0.890 和 0.904。校准图显示，该列线图具有稳健的预测准确性。
据我们所知，这是第一项基于多变量分析建立预测 YBCa 3 年、5 年和 10 年 OS 的精确列线图的研究。我们的列线图可以为 YBCa 的未来诊断和个体化治疗提供有价值的参考。然而，需要进行外部验证以评估我们的预后模型的准确性和普遍性。
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