Cartographic evaluation of the risk of natural elements' deficiency in the soil cover provoking spatial variation of the endemic morbidity level (on example of thyroid morbidity among population of the Central Federal District, Russia).

The main goal of the study is to evaluate the contribution of the natural geochemical risk in the central part of the Eastern European Plain to the spatial distribution of human diseases provoked by the deficiency of biologically significant microelements (Co, Cu, and I) in the environment. The Central Federal District (CFD) of Russia, located in the Eastern European Plain is characterized by a deficiency of Co, Cu, and I in the environment (soils, local food). To access the risk of thyroid diseases associated with Co, Cu, and I content in soils of the CFD based on published data of trace elements concentrations and digital soil map we create maps of the elements variation in soil cover allowing to estimate their mean concentration in the regions. The obtained cartographic estimates are comparable with the previously published assessments and averaged study results at the regional level. Comparison with medical data on thyroid disease morbidity from 2013 to 2017 at the regional level showed a significant inverse correlation with the cartographic estimates of soil I and combined (Co + Cu + I) status with due consideration of soil structure (12 regions, except for those affected by technogenic radioiodine contamination and Moscow urbanized regions). The urban population suffered from thyroid diseases to a higher extent in comparison with the rural population, which corresponds to our previous estimates. The results confirmed the possibility of assessing the geochemical risk of endemic diseases based on geochemical soil maps and identifying the negative contribution of micronutrient deficiency in the environment to endemic morbidity in the population.