Zhang Haijiao, Wang Rangrang, Yu Tianyu, Yu Dingye, Song Changfeng, Ma Bingwei, Li Jiyu
Department of General Surgery, Huadong Hospital Affiliated to Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
Department of General Surgery, Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital of Tongji University, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.
J Gastrointest Oncol. 2024 Feb 29;15(1):164-178. doi: 10.21037/jgo-23-863. Epub 2024 Feb 27.
BACKGROUND: With the aging of the population, colorectal surgeons will have to face more elderly colorectal cancer (CRC) patients in the future. We aim to analyze independent risk factors affecting overall survival in elderly (age ≥65 years) patients with stage II-III CRC and construct a nomogram to predict patient survival. METHODS: A total of 3,016 elderly CRC patients with stage II-III were obtained from the SEER database. Univariate Cox regression and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analyses were used to screen independent prognostic factors, and a survival prediction nomogram was constructed based on the results. The consistency index (C-index), decision curve analysis (DCA), Akaike information criterion (AIC), and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) were used to compare the predictive ability between the nomogram and tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage system. All patients were classified into high-risk and low-risk groups based on risk scores calculated by nomogram. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare the survival differences between two groups. RESULTS: The 3- and 5-year area under the curve (AUC) values of the prediction nomogram model were 76.6% and 74.8%, respectively. The AIC, BIC, and C-index values of the nomogram model were 6,032.502, 15,728.72, and 0.707, respectively, which were better than the TNM staging system. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed a significant survival difference between high-risk and low-risk groups (P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: We constructed a prediction nomogram for stage II-III elderly CRC patients by combining pre-treatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) levels, which can accurately predict patient survival. This facilitates clinicians to accurately assess patient prognosis and identify high-risk patients to adopt more aggressive and effective treatment strategies.
背景:随着人口老龄化,结直肠外科医生未来将面对更多老年结直肠癌(CRC)患者。我们旨在分析影响老年(年龄≥65岁)II-III期CRC患者总生存的独立危险因素,并构建列线图以预测患者生存。 方法:从监测、流行病学与最终结果(SEER)数据库中获取3016例老年II-III期CRC患者。采用单因素Cox回归和最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归分析筛选独立预后因素,并根据结果构建生存预测列线图。使用一致性指数(C指数)、决策曲线分析(DCA)、赤池信息准则(AIC)和贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)比较列线图与肿瘤-淋巴结-转移(TNM)分期系统之间的预测能力。根据列线图计算的风险评分将所有患者分为高风险和低风险组。采用Kaplan-Meier法比较两组之间的生存差异。 结果:预测列线图模型的3年和5年曲线下面积(AUC)值分别为76.6%和74.8%。列线图模型的AIC、BIC和C指数值分别为6032.502、15728.72和0.707,均优于TNM分期系统。Kaplan-Meier生存分析显示高风险和低风险组之间存在显著的生存差异(P<0.0001)。 结论:我们通过结合治疗前癌胚抗原(CEA)水平构建了II-III期老年CRC患者的预测列线图,可准确预测患者生存。这有助于临床医生准确评估患者预后并识别高风险患者,从而采取更积极有效的治疗策略。
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