Husein Munir, Moner-Girona Magda, Falchetta Giacomo, Stevanato Nicolò, Fahl Fernando, Szabó Sandor
Center for Clean Energy and Climate Change, Baze University, Abuja, Nigeria.
European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Ispra, Italy.
Heliyon. 2024 Feb 29;10(5):e27440. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27440. eCollection 2024 Mar 15.
In Nigeria, 86 million people lack electricity access, the highest number worldwide, predominantly in rural areas. Despite government efforts, constrained budgets necessitate private investors, who, without adequate incentives, are hesitant to commit capital due to perceived high risks. This study identifies three existing incentive policies-concessionary loans, capital subsidy, and financing productive use equipment-aimed at promoting rural electrification in Nigeria. Employing geospatial and regulatory analyses, we evaluate their impact on electrification planning across 22,696 population clusters. While all incentives encourage mini-grids and stand-alone systems, results show varied impacts, predominantly favouring mini-grids. Under the baseline, grid extension is optimal for 66% of clusters, followed by mini-grids (27%) and stand-alone systems (7%). Concessionary loans boost mini-grid and Stand-Alone Systems shares by 10% and 5%, respectively. Capital subsidies increase the mini-grid share to 41%, surpassing concessional loans (37%). Financing productive equipment enhances Stand-Alone Systems and mini-grid shares to 15% and 43%. Incentives impact LCOE, CAPEX, and OPEX, with average LCOE reducing to 0.31 EUR/kWh (concessionary loans), 0.30 EUR/kWh (capital subsidy), and 0.27 EUR/kWh (financing productive use). Financing productive uses proves decisively more effective in lowering costs for mini-grids and stand-alone systems than loans or capital subsidies. The important policy implications of this study reinforce the need for tailored incentives for distinct electrification options.
在尼日利亚，8600万人无法用上电，这一数字在全球位居首位，且主要集中在农村地区。尽管政府做出了努力，但预算紧张使得私人投资者成为必要，然而，由于感知到的高风险，在没有足够激励措施的情况下，私人投资者对投入资金犹豫不决。本研究确定了三项现有的激励政策——优惠贷款、资本补贴以及为生产性使用设备融资——旨在促进尼日利亚的农村电气化。通过地理空间和监管分析，我们评估了这些政策对22696个人口集群的电气化规划的影响。虽然所有激励措施都鼓励建设微型电网和独立系统，但结果显示出不同的影响，主要有利于微型电网。在基线情况下，66%的集群采用电网延伸最为合适，其次是微型电网（27%）和独立系统（7%）。优惠贷款分别将微型电网和独立系统的份额提高了10%和5%。资本补贴将微型电网的份额提高到41%，超过了优惠贷款（37%）。为生产性设备融资使独立系统和微型电网的份额分别提高到15%和43%。激励措施会影响平准化度电成本（LCOE）、资本支出（CAPEX）和运营支出（OPEX），平均LCOE降至0.31欧元/千瓦时（优惠贷款）、0.30欧元/千瓦时（资本补贴）和0.27欧元/千瓦时（为生产性使用融资）。事实证明，为生产性使用融资在降低微型电网和独立系统成本方面比贷款或资本补贴更具决定性效果。本研究的重要政策意义强化了针对不同电气化选项制定量身定制激励措施的必要性。
