Murray Myranda, Wright Jonathan, Araya-Ajoy Yimen G
Centre for Biodiversity Dynamics (CBD), Department of Biology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), N-7491 Trondheim, Norway.
Evol Lett. 2023 Jul 13;8(1):137-148. doi: 10.1093/evlett/qrad022. eCollection 2024 Feb.
Changes in avian breeding phenology are among the most apparent responses to climate change in free-ranging populations. A key question is whether populations will be able to keep up with the expected rates of environmental change. There is a large body of research on the mechanisms by which avian lay-dates track temperature change and the consequences of (mal)adaptation on population persistence. Often overlooked is the role of males, which can influence the lay-date of their mate through their effect on the prelaying environment. We explore how social plasticity causing male indirect genetic effects can help or hinder population persistence when female genes underpinning lay-date and male genes influencing female's timing of reproduction both respond to climate-mediated selection. We extend quantitative genetic moving optimum models to predict the consequences of social plasticity on the maximum sustainable rate of temperature change, and evaluate our model using a combination of simulated data and empirical estimates from the literature. Our results suggest that predictions for population persistence may be biased if indirect genetic effects and cross-sex genetic correlations are not considered and that the extent of this bias depends on sex differences in how environmental change affects the optimal timing of reproduction. Our model highlights that more empirical work is needed to understand sex-specific effects of environmental change on phenology and the fitness consequences for population dynamics. While we discuss our results exclusively in the context of avian breeding phenology, the approach we take here can be generalized to many different contexts and types of social interaction.
鸟类繁殖物候的变化是自由放养种群对气候变化最明显的反应之一。一个关键问题是种群是否能够跟上预期的环境变化速度。关于鸟类产卵日期跟踪温度变化的机制以及（不）适应对种群持续生存的影响，有大量研究。常常被忽视的是雄性的作用，雄性可以通过对产卵前环境的影响来影响其配偶的产卵日期。当决定产卵日期的雌性基因和影响雌性繁殖时间的雄性基因都对气候介导的选择做出反应时，我们探讨了导致雄性间接遗传效应的社会可塑性如何帮助或阻碍种群持续生存。我们扩展了定量遗传移动最优模型，以预测社会可塑性对温度变化最大可持续速率的影响，并结合模拟数据和文献中的实证估计来评估我们的模型。我们的结果表明，如果不考虑间接遗传效应和跨性别遗传相关性，对种群持续生存的预测可能会有偏差，而且这种偏差的程度取决于环境变化影响繁殖最佳时间的性别差异。我们的模型强调，需要更多的实证研究来了解环境变化对物候的性别特异性影响以及对种群动态适合度的后果。虽然我们仅在鸟类繁殖物候的背景下讨论我们的结果，但我们这里采用的方法可以推广到许多不同的背景和社会互动类型。
