Guo Zirui, Zhang Li, Liu Jue, Liu Min
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Beijing Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Beijing, China.
Health Data Sci. 2022 Nov 1;2022:9830159. doi: 10.34133/2022/9830159. eCollection 2022.
. COVID-19 prevention and control measures might affect influenza epidemic in China since the nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and behavioral changes contain transmission of both SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus. We aimed to explore the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on influenza using data from the National Influenza Surveillance Network.. The percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%) in southern and northern China from 2010 to 2022 was collected from the National Influenza Surveillance Network. Weekly ILI% observed value from 2010 to 2019 was used to calculate estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) of ILI% with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Time series analysis was applied to estimate weekly ILI% predicted values in 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 season. Impact index was used to explore the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control on influenza during nonpharmaceutical intervention and vaccination stages.. China influenza activity was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and different prevention and control measures during 2020-2022. In 2020/2021 season, weekly ILI% observed value in both southern and northern China was at a low epidemic level, and there was no obvious epidemic peak in winter and spring. In 2021/2022 season, weekly ILI% observed value in southern and northern China showed a small peak in summer and epidemic peak in winter and spring. The weekly ILI% observed value was generally lower than the predicted value in southern and northern China during 2020-2022. The median of impact index of weekly ILI% was 15.11% in north and 22.37% in south in 2020/2021 season and decreased significantly to 2.20% in north and 3.89% in south in 2021/2022 season.. In summary, there was a significant decrease in reported ILI in China during the 2020-2022 COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in winter and spring. Reduction of influenza virus infection might relate to everyday Chinese public health COVID-19 interventions. The confirmation of this relationship depends on future studies.
由于非药物干预措施(NPIs)和行为变化同时包含了严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)和流感病毒的传播,新冠疫情防控措施可能会影响中国的流感流行情况。我们旨在利用国家流感监测网络的数据,探究新冠疫情防控措施对流感的影响。
从国家流感监测网络收集了2010年至2022年中国南方和北方的流感样病例百分比(ILI%)。使用2010年至2019年的每周ILI%观测值来计算ILI%的估计年度百分比变化(EAPC)及其95%置信区间(CIs)。应用时间序列分析来估计2020/2021年和2021/2022年流感季节的每周ILI%预测值。使用影响指数来探究新冠疫情防控措施在非药物干预和疫苗接种阶段对流感的影响。
2020 - 2022年期间,中国的流感活动受到新冠疫情和不同防控措施的影响。在2020/2021年流感季节,中国南方和北方的每周ILI%观测值均处于低流行水平,且冬春季没有明显的流行高峰。在2021/2022年流感季节,中国南方和北方的每周ILI%观测值在夏季出现一个小高峰,在冬春季出现流行高峰。2020 - 2022年期间,中国南方和北方的每周ILI%观测值总体低于预测值。2020/2021年流感季节,北方每周ILI%影响指数的中位数为15.11%,南方为22.37%;到2021/2022年流感季节,北方显著降至2.20%,南方降至3.89%。
综上所述,在2020 - 2022年新冠疫情期间,中国报告的ILI显著下降,尤其是在冬春季。流感病毒感染的减少可能与中国日常的新冠疫情公共卫生干预措施有关。这种关系的确认有待未来研究。