Hunter Cameron, Bowen Bleddyn E
School of History, Politics and International Relations, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK.
J Strateg Stud. 2023 Aug 7;47(1):116-146. doi: 10.1080/01402390.2023.2241648. eCollection 2024.
Military AI optimists predict future AI assisting or making command decisions. We instead argue that, at a fundamental level, these predictions are dangerously wrong. The nature of war demands decisions based on abductive logic, whilst machine learning (or 'narrow AI') relies on inductive logic. The two forms of logic are not interchangeable, and therefore AI's limited utility in command - both tactical and strategic - is not something that can be solved by more data or more computing power. Many defence and government leaders are therefore proceeding with a false view of the nature of AI and of war itself.
军事人工智能乐观主义者预测，未来人工智能将协助或做出指挥决策。相反，我们认为，从根本层面上讲，这些预测错得离谱。战争的本质要求基于溯因逻辑做出决策，而机器学习（或“狭义人工智能”）依赖归纳逻辑。这两种逻辑形式不可互换，因此人工智能在战术和战略指挥方面的效用有限，这不是更多数据或更强计算能力就能解决的问题。因此，许多国防和政府领导人对人工智能的本质以及战争本身存在错误的认识。
