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对中国过去四十多年及未来的酸沉降减排路径的探索。

A probe into the acid deposition mitigation path in China over the last four decades and beyond.

作者信息

Yu Qian, Ge Xiaodong, Zheng Haotian, Xing Jia, Duan Lei, Lv Dongwei, Ding Dian, Dong Zhaoxin, Sun Yisheng, Maximilian Posch, Xie Danni, Zhao Yu, Zhao Bin, Wang Shuxiao, Mulder Jan, Larssen Thorjørn, Hao Jiming

机构信息

State Key Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.

State Key Laboratory of Pollution Control & Resource Reuse and School of the Environment, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China.

出版信息

Natl Sci Rev. 2024 Jan 5;11(4):nwae007. doi: 10.1093/nsr/nwae007. eCollection 2024 Apr.

Abstract

China currently has the highest acid deposition globally, yet research on its status, impacts, causes and controls is lacking. Here, we compiled data and calculated critical loads regarding acid deposition. The results showed that the abatement measures in China have achieved a sharp decline in the emissions of acidifying pollutants and a continuous recovery of precipitation pH, despite the drastic growth in the economy and energy consumption. However, the risk of ecological acidification and eutrophication showed no significant decrease. With similar emission reductions, the decline in areas at risk of acidification in China (7.0%) lags behind those in Europe (20%) or the USA (15%). This was because, unlike Europe and the USA, China's abatement strategies primarily target air quality improvement rather than mitigating ecological impacts. Given that the area with the risk of eutrophication induced by nitrogen deposition remained at 13% of the country even under the scenario of achieving the dual targets of air quality and carbon dioxide mitigation in 2035, we explored an enhanced ammonia abatement pathway. With a further 27% reduction in ammonia by 2035, China could largely eliminate the impacts of acid deposition. This research serves as a valuable reference for China's future acid deposition control and for other nations facing similar challenges.

摘要

中国目前是全球酸性沉降最严重的地区,但对其现状、影响、成因及控制措施的研究却十分匮乏。在此,我们收集了相关数据并计算了酸性沉降的临界负荷。结果表明,尽管中国经济和能源消耗急剧增长,但减排措施已使酸化污染物排放量大幅下降,降水pH值持续回升。然而,生态酸化和富营养化风险并未显著降低。在减排幅度相近的情况下,中国酸化风险区域的降幅(7.0%)落后于欧洲(20%)和美国(15%)。这是因为与欧洲和美国不同,中国的减排策略主要着眼于改善空气质量,而非减轻生态影响。鉴于即使在2035年实现空气质量和二氧化碳减排双重目标的情景下,氮沉降导致富营养化风险的区域仍占全国的13%,我们探索了一条强化氨减排途径。到2035年若进一步减少27%的氨排放,中国将能基本消除酸性沉降的影响。本研究为中国未来的酸性沉降控制以及其他面临类似挑战的国家提供了有价值的参考。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/299f/10941815/f26a5f1dbb32/nwae007fig1.jpg

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