School of Environment, College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Water Engineering, Aburaihan Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Environ Monit Assess. 2024 Mar 18;196(4):378. doi: 10.1007/s10661-024-12511-7.
Allocation of water in the situation of climate change presents various uncertainties. Consequently, decisions must be made to ensure stability and functionality across different climatic scenarios. This study aims to examine the effectiveness of adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector, including a 5% increase in irrigation efficiency (S1) and a shift in irrigation method to Dry-DSR (direct seeded rice) under conditions of climatic uncertainty using a decision-making approach. The study focuses on the basin downstream of the Sefidroud dam, encompassing the Sefidroud irrigation and drainage network. Initially, basin modeling was conducted using the WEAP integrated management software for the period 2006-2020. Subsequently, the impact of climate change was assessed, considering RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios on surface water resources from 2021 to 2050. Runoff and cultivated area, both subject to uncertainty, were identified as key parameters. To evaluate strategy performance under different uncertainties and determine the efficacy of each strategy, regret and satisfaction approaches were employed. Results indicate a projected decrease in future rainfall by 3.5-11.8% compared to the base period, accompanied by an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures (0.83-1.62 °C and 1.15-1.33 °C, respectively). Inflow to the Sefidroud dam is expected to decrease by 13-28%. Presently, the Sefidroud irrigation and drainage network faces an annual deficit of 505.4 MCM, and if current trends persist with the impact of climate change, this shortfall may increase to 932.7 MCM annually. Furthermore, satisfaction indices for strategy (S2) are 0.77 in an optimistic scenario and 0.70 in strategy (S1). In a pessimistic scenario, these indices are 0.67 and 0.56, respectively. Notably, changing the irrigation method with Dry-DSR is recommended as a robust strategy, demonstrating the ability to maintain basin stability under a broad range of uncertainties and climate change scenarios. It is crucial to note that the results solely highlight the effects of climate change on water sources entering the Sefidroud dam. Considering anthropogenic activities upstream of the Sefidroud basin, water resource shortages are expected to increase. Therefore, reallocating water resources and implementing practical and appropriate measures in this area are imperative.
在气候变化的情况下，水资源的分配存在各种不确定性。因此，必须做出决策以确保在不同气候情景下的稳定性和功能。本研究旨在通过决策方法，考察在农业部门中采取适应策略的效果，包括在气候不确定条件下将灌溉效率提高 5%（S1）和将灌溉方式改为旱直播（直接播种水稻）（DSR）（S2）。研究集中在塞菲德鲁德大坝下游的流域，包括塞菲德鲁德灌溉和排水网络。首先，使用 WEAP 综合管理软件对 2006-2020 年期间的流域进行建模。随后，考虑 RCP2.6、RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 排放情景，评估了气候变化对 2021 年至 2050 年地表水的影响。径流量和耕地面积都是不确定的关键参数。为了在不同的不确定性下评估策略的性能，并确定每种策略的效果，使用了遗憾和满意度方法。结果表明，与基准期相比，未来的降雨量预计将减少 3.5-11.8%，同时最高和最低温度将升高（分别为 0.83-1.62°C 和 1.15-1.33°C）。塞菲德鲁德大坝的入流量预计将减少 13-28%。目前，塞菲德鲁德灌溉和排水网络每年面临 505.4 立方米的赤字，如果目前的趋势持续下去并受到气候变化的影响，这一赤字可能每年增加到 932.7 立方米。此外，在乐观情景下，策略（S2）的满意度指数为 0.77，在策略（S1）中为 0.70。在悲观情景下，这些指数分别为 0.67 和 0.56。值得注意的是，建议采用旱直播的灌溉方法作为一种稳健的策略，因为它能够在广泛的不确定性和气候变化情景下保持流域的稳定性。需要注意的是，结果仅突出了气候变化对进入塞菲德鲁德大坝的水源的影响。考虑到塞菲德鲁德流域上游的人为活动，预计水资源短缺将增加。因此，在该地区重新分配水资源并实施实际和适当的措施是至关重要的。
