Sorge Justin, Colyer Sean, Cox Joseph, Kroch Abigail, Lachowsky Nathan, Popovic Nashira, Yang Qiuying
Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON.
Ontario HIV Treatment Network, Toronto, ON.
Can Commun Dis Rep. 2023 Nov 1;49(11-12):465-476. doi: 10.14745/ccdr.v49i1112a02.
Gay or bisexual (GB) and other men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) globally and domestically in Canada. Reliable and recent population size estimates are necessary to allocate resources to meet prevention needs and for modelling the HIV epidemic. However, previous direct estimates did not account for GB men who would not reveal their sexual identity to a government survey, nor MSM not identifying as GB. The objective of this study was to develop two national population size estimates of gay, bisexual and other men who have sex with men (gbMSM) in 2020. First, GB men based on identity, regardless of sexual experience, and MSM who do not identify as GB but reported anal sex with a man in the past 1-5 years ("Identity-or-Behaviour" estimate). Second, an estimate of gbMSM who reported past 6-12 months anal sex with a man ("Behaviour-only" estimate).
Estimates for males aged 15 years and older were drawn from Statistics Canada's population size estimates, the Canadian Community Health Survey and the Community-Based Research Centre's Sex Now Survey. Estimated proportions of GB identity, those not likely to disclose GB identity and MSM who do not identify as GB but who reported past 1-5 years anal sex were applied. Past 6-12 months anal sex history was subsequently used to limit estimates to those sexually active anally.
It was estimated that 3.5% of the male population in Canada aged 15 years and older identified as GB. Of GB males, 86.5% were likely to disclose their sexual identity to a government survey. A further 0.1% of non-GB identified males reported past year anal sex with a man. The national Identity-or-Behaviour gbMSM population size in 2020 was estimated at 669,613 people, equivalent to 4.3% of the Canadian male population aged 15 years and older. The estimate of Behaviour-only gbMSM was 412,186, representing 2.6% of the Canadian male population aged 15 years and older.
Using data from multiple sources, a model applied to estimate the population size of gbMSM, accounting for populations previously not included in prior estimates, has been described.
在全球及加拿大国内，男同性恋者或双性恋者（GB）以及其他与男性发生性行为的男性（MSM）受人类免疫缺陷病毒（HIV）影响的比例过高。为满足预防需求和对HIV疫情进行建模，有必要进行可靠且最新的人口规模估计。然而，以往的直接估计并未将那些不会向政府调查透露其性取向的GB男性以及未认定为GB的MSM考虑在内。本研究的目的是对2020年男同性恋者、双性恋者及其他与男性发生性行为的男性（gbMSM）的全国人口规模进行两种估计。第一，基于身份认定的GB男性，无论其性经历如何，以及未认定为GB但在过去1至5年报告有与男性肛交行为的MSM（“身份或行为”估计）。第二，对报告在过去6至12个月有与男性肛交行为的gbMSM进行估计（“仅行为”估计）。
对15岁及以上男性的估计数据来自加拿大统计局的人口规模估计、加拿大社区健康调查以及社区研究中心的《当下性行为调查》。应用了GB身份认定的估计比例、不太可能透露GB身份的比例以及未认定为GB但报告过去1至5年有肛交行为的MSM的比例。随后，根据过去6至12个月的肛交史将估计范围限制在有肛交性行为的人群。
据估计，加拿大15岁及以上男性人口中有3.5%认定为GB。在GB男性中，86.5%可能会向政府调查透露其性取向。另有0.1%未认定为GB的男性报告过去一年有与男性肛交行为。2020年全国“身份或行为”gbMSM人口规模估计为669,613人，相当于加拿大15岁及以上男性人口的4.3%。“仅行为”gbMSM的估计人数为412,186人，占加拿大15岁及以上男性人口的2.6%。
利用来自多个来源的数据，描述了一种用于估计gbMSM人口规模的模型，该模型考虑了先前估计中未包括的人群。
