Population Health Research Section, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center (KAIMRC), King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Ministry of National Guard - Health Affairs, P.O.BOX 9515, Jeddah 21423, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
King Abdullah International Medical Research Center (KAIMRC), King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Ministry of National Guard - Health Affairs, P.O.BOX 9515, Jeddah 21423, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Neoplasia. 2024 May;51:100988. doi: 10.1016/j.neo.2024.100988. Epub 2024 Mar 20.
Early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) incidence and prevalence trends in the rise in high income countries, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. The study aimed to offer an up-to-date assessment of the overall burden of CRC, and EO-CRC in GCC countries and project its incidence and mortality in 2030.
The prevalence, incidence, mortality, years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of CRC were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. The incidence and mortality of CRC, and EO-CRC up to 2030 were predicted.
All GCC countries showed a higher annual average percentage changes (AAPC) AAPC incidence rate for EO-CRC compared to CRC. In Saudi Arabia the number of CRC cases has increased from 1990 1484.57; (95 % UI 1987.98,1083.86) 11.4-fold-increase to 16991.83; (95 % UI 21754.79,12892.12) in 2019. In 2030, the total incidence cases of CRC for the six Gulf countries are expected to reach 13,339 thousand, primarily driven by Saudi Arabia with 7,910.19 cases. In 2030, the CRC mortality rate is projected to be 7,647 cases, with nearly 57 % of CRC mortality cases anticipated in Saudi Arabia.
This study sheds light on the alarming rise in CRC and EO-CRC across Gulf countries from 1990 to 2019, emphasizing Saudi Arabia's significant burden. It projects a concerning increase in CRC incidence and mortality by 2030, primarily in Saudi Arabia, and highlights the need for immediate public health interventions.
在高收入国家，如海湾合作委员会（GCC）国家，早发性结直肠癌（EO-CRC）的发病率和患病率呈上升趋势。本研究旨在提供对海湾合作委员会国家 CRC 和 EO-CRC 总体负担的最新评估，并预测 2030 年的发病率和死亡率。
从 2019 年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究中获得 CRC 的患病率、发病率、死亡率、生命残疾年（YLDs）和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）。预测了 2030 年 CRC 和 EO-CRC 的发病率和死亡率。
所有 GCC 国家的 EO-CRC 发病率的年平均百分比变化（AAPC）均高于 CRC。在沙特阿拉伯，CRC 病例数从 1990 年的 1484.57 例增加到 16991.83 例；（95%UI 21754.79，12892.12），2019 年增长了 11.4 倍。到 2030 年，六个海湾国家的 CRC 总发病人数预计将达到 1333.9 万，主要由沙特阿拉伯推动，有 7910.19 例。到 2030 年，CRC 死亡率预计为 7647 例，其中近 57%的 CRC 死亡病例预计在沙特阿拉伯。
本研究揭示了 1990 年至 2019 年海湾国家 CRC 和 EO-CRC 的惊人增长，强调了沙特阿拉伯的巨大负担。预计到 2030 年 CRC 的发病率和死亡率将大幅上升，主要集中在沙特阿拉伯，突显出需要立即采取公共卫生干预措施。
