Taylor-Burns Rae, Lowrie Christopher, Tehranirad Babak, Lowe Jeremy, Erikson Li, Barnard Patrick L, Reguero Borja G, Beck Michael W
University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
U.S. Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
Sci Rep. 2024 Mar 21;14(1):6856. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-57474-4.
The use of nature-based solutions (NBS) for coastal climate adaptation has broad and growing interest, but NBS are rarely assessed with the same rigor as traditional engineering solutions or with respect to future climate change scenarios. These gaps pose challenges for the use of NBS for climate adaptation. Here, we value the flood protection benefits of stakeholder-identified marsh restoration under current and future climate change within San Francisco Bay, a densely urbanized estuary, and specifically on the shores of San Mateo County, the county most vulnerable to future flooding in California. Marsh restoration provides a present value of $21 million which increases to over $100 million with 0.5 m of sea level rise (SLR), and to about $500 million with 1 m of SLR. There are hotspots within the county where marsh restoration delivers very high benefits for adaptation, which reach $9 million/hectare with likely future sea level and storm conditions. Today's investments in nature and community resilience can result in increasing payoffs as climate change progresses and risk increases.
利用基于自然的解决方案（NBS）来适应沿海气候变化已引发广泛且不断增长的关注，但对NBS的评估却很少能像传统工程解决方案那样严谨，也很少针对未来气候变化情景进行评估。这些差距给利用NBS进行气候适应带来了挑战。在此，我们评估了利益相关者确定的湿地恢复在当前和未来气候变化情况下对旧金山湾（一个高度城市化的河口），特别是对加利福尼亚州最易遭受未来洪水的圣马特奥县海岸的防洪效益。湿地恢复目前的价值为2100万美元，海平面上升0.5米时增至超过1亿美元，海平面上升1米时增至约5亿美元。该县存在一些热点区域，在这些区域进行湿地恢复可为适应气候变化带来极高的效益，在未来可能出现的海平面和风暴条件下，效益可达900万美元/公顷。随着气候变化的发展和风险的增加，如今对自然和社区复原力的投资可能会带来越来越高的回报。
