Kreider Mark R, Higuera Philip E, Parks Sean A, Rice William L, White Nadia, Larson Andrew J
Department of Forest Management, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA.
Department of Ecosystem and Conservation Sciences, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, 59812, USA.
Nat Commun. 2024 Mar 25;15(1):2412. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-46702-0.
Fire suppression is the primary management response to wildfires in many areas globally. By removing less-extreme wildfires, this approach ensures that remaining wildfires burn under more extreme conditions. Here, we term this the "suppression bias" and use a simulation model to highlight how this bias fundamentally impacts wildfire activity, independent of fuel accumulation and climate change. We illustrate how attempting to suppress all wildfires necessarily means that fires will burn with more severe and less diverse ecological impacts, with burned area increasing at faster rates than expected from fuel accumulation or climate change. Over a human lifespan, the modeled impacts of the suppression bias exceed those from fuel accumulation or climate change alone, suggesting that suppression may exert a significant and underappreciated influence on patterns of fire globally. Managing wildfires to safely burn under low and moderate conditions is thus a critical tool to address the growing wildfire crisis.
在全球许多地区,灭火是应对野火的主要管理措施。通过消除不太严重的野火,这种方法确保了剩余的野火在更极端的条件下燃烧。在此,我们将此称为“灭火偏差”,并使用一个模拟模型来突出这种偏差如何从根本上影响野火活动,而与燃料积累和气候变化无关。我们阐述了试图扑灭所有野火必然意味着火灾将以更严重且生态影响更单一的方式燃烧,烧毁面积的增长速度比燃料积累或气候变化所预期的要快。在人的一生中,模拟的灭火偏差影响超过了仅由燃料积累或气候变化所产生的影响,这表明灭火可能对全球火灾模式产生重大且未得到充分认识的影响。因此,管理野火使其在低强度和中等强度条件下安全燃烧是应对日益严重的野火危机的关键手段。