Altassan Kholood K, Morin Cory W, Hess Jeremy J
Department of Family and Community Medicine, King Saud University, Riyadh 11421, Saudi Arabia.
Department of Environmental and Occupational Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
Pathogens. 2024 Feb 28;13(3):214. doi: 10.3390/pathogens13030214.
The first case of dengue fever (DF) in Saudi Arabia appeared in 1993 but by 2022, DF incidence was 11 per 100,000 people. Climatologic and population factors, such as the annual Hajj, likely contribute to DF's epidemiology in Saudi Arabia. In this study, we assess the impact of these variables on the DF burden of disease in Saudi Arabia and we attempt to create robust DF predictive models. Using 10 years of DF, weather, and pilgrimage data, we conducted a bivariate analysis investigating the role of weather and pilgrimage variables on DF incidence. We also compared the abilities of three different predictive models. Amongst weather variables, temperature and humidity had the strongest associations with DF incidence, while rainfall showed little to no significant relationship. Pilgrimage variables did not have strong associations with DF incidence. The random forest model had the highest predictive ability (R = 0.62) when previous DF data were withheld, and the ARIMA model was the best (R = 0.78) when previous DF data were incorporated. We found that a nonlinear machine-learning model incorporating temperature and humidity variables had the best prediction accuracy for DF, regardless of the availability of previous DF data. This finding can inform DF early warning systems and preparedness in Saudi Arabia.
沙特阿拉伯的首例登革热病例出现在1993年，但到2022年，登革热发病率为每10万人中有11例。气候和人口因素，如每年的朝觐，可能对沙特阿拉伯登革热的流行病学有影响。在本研究中，我们评估这些变量对沙特阿拉伯登革热疾病负担的影响，并试图创建强大的登革热预测模型。利用10年的登革热、天气和朝圣数据，我们进行了双变量分析，研究天气和朝圣变量对登革热发病率的作用。我们还比较了三种不同预测模型的能力。在天气变量中，温度和湿度与登革热发病率的关联最强，而降雨显示出几乎没有显著关系。朝圣变量与登革热发病率没有很强的关联。当不使用先前的登革热数据时，随机森林模型具有最高的预测能力（R = 0.62），而当纳入先前的登革热数据时，ARIMA模型是最好的（R = 0.78）。我们发现，无论先前的登革热数据是否可用，纳入温度和湿度变量的非线性机器学习模型对登革热具有最佳的预测准确性。这一发现可为沙特阿拉伯的登革热早期预警系统和防范工作提供参考。
