Department of Population Health, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, New York, NY, USA.
Department of Surgery, New York University Grossman School of Medicine, 1 Park Ave 6-815, New York, NY, USA.
J Urban Health. 2024 Apr;101(2):280-288. doi: 10.1007/s11524-024-00851-1. Epub 2024 Mar 27.
Despite well-studied associations of state firearm laws with lower state- and county-level firearm homicide, there is a shortage of studies investigating differences in the effects of distinct state firearm law categories on various cities within the same state using identical methods. We examined associations of 5 categories of state firearm laws-pertaining to buyers, dealers, domestic violence, gun type/trafficking, and possession-with city-level firearm homicide, and then tested differential associations by city characteristics. City-level panel data on firearm homicide cases of 78 major cities from 2010 to 2020 was assessed from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Vital Statistics System. We modeled log-transformed firearm homicide rates as a function of firearm law scores, city, state, and year fixed effects, along with time-varying city-level confounders. We considered effect measure modification by poverty, unemployment, vacant housing, and income inequality. A one z-score increase in state gun type/trafficking, possession, and dealer law scores was associated with 25% (95% confidence interval [CI]:-0.37,-0.1), 19% (95% CI:-0.29,-0.07), and 17% (95% CI:-0.28, -0.4) lower firearm homicide rates, respectively. Protective associations were less pronounced in cities with high unemployment and high housing vacancy, but more pronounced in cities with high income inequality. In large US cities, state-level gun type/trafficking, possession, and dealer laws were associated with lower firearm homicide rates, but buyers and domestic violence laws were not. State firearm laws may have differential effects on firearm homicides based on city characteristics, and city-wide policies to enhance socioeconomic drivers may add benefits of firearm laws.
尽管州级枪支法律与州级和县级枪支凶杀率之间存在关联已得到充分研究，但仍缺乏使用相同方法研究不同州级枪支法律类别对同一州内各个城市的影响差异的研究。我们研究了 5 类州级枪支法律（与购买者、经销商、家庭暴力、枪支类型/贩运以及持有有关）与城市层面枪支凶杀案之间的关联，然后根据城市特征检验了不同关联。这项研究从疾病控制与预防中心（Centers for Disease Control and Prevention）的国家生命统计系统（National Vital Statistics System）中评估了 2010 年至 2020 年 78 个主要城市的枪支凶杀案件的城市层面面板数据。我们将枪支凶杀率的对数变换形式建模为枪支法律评分、城市、州和年份固定效应以及随时间变化的城市层面混杂因素的函数。我们考虑了贫困、失业、空置住房和收入不平等对效应量的修正。州级枪支类型/贩运、持有和经销商法律评分每增加一个标准差，与枪支凶杀率分别降低 25%（95%置信区间[CI]：-0.37，-0.1）、19%（95% CI：-0.29，-0.07）和 17%（95% CI：-0.28，-0.4）相关。在失业率和住房空置率较高的城市中，保护作用不那么明显，但在收入不平等程度较高的城市中，保护作用更为明显。在美国大城市中，州级枪支类型/贩运、持有和经销商法律与较低的枪支凶杀率相关，但购买者和家庭暴力法律则不然。州级枪支法律可能会根据城市特征对枪支凶杀案产生不同的影响，而加强社会经济驱动因素的全市范围政策可能会增加枪支法律的效益。
