CNRS, IRD, INRA, Coll France, CEREGE, Aix-Marseille Université, Aix-en-Provence, France.
Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Écologie Marine et Continentale (IMBE), Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Aix-en-Provence, France.
PLoS One. 2024 Mar 27;19(3):e0298895. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0298895. eCollection 2024.
What impact did the Roman Climate Optimum (RCO) and the Late Antique Little Ice Age (LALIA) have on the rise and fall of the Roman Empire? Our article presents an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach developed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the profitability of vineyards, olive groves, and grain farms in Southern Gaul, which were the main source of wealth in the roman period. This ABM simulates an agroecosystem model which processes potential agricultural yield values from paleoclimatic data. The model calculates the revenues made by agricultural exploitations from the sale of crops whose annual volumes vary according to climate and market prices. The potential profits made by the different agricultural exploitations are calculated by deducting from the income the operating and transportation costs. We conclude that the warm and wet climate of the Roman period may have had an extremely beneficial effect on the profitability of wine and olive farms between the 2nd century BCE and the 3rd century CE, but a more modest effect on grain production. Subsequently, there is a significant decrease in the potential profitability of farms during the Late Antique Little Ice Age (4th-7th century CE). Comparing the results of our model with archaeological data enables us to discuss the impact of these climatic fluctuations on the agricultural and economic growth, and then their subsequent recession in Southern Gaul from the beginning to the end of antiquity.
罗马气候适宜期（RCO）和中世纪暖期小冰期（LALIA）对罗马帝国的兴衰有何影响？我们的文章提出了一种基于代理的建模（ABM）方法，用于评估气候变化对南高卢葡萄园、橄榄园和谷物农场盈利能力的影响，这些是罗马时期的主要财富来源。该 ABM 模拟了一个农业生态系统模型，该模型根据古气候数据处理潜在的农业产量值。该模型根据气候和市场价格计算每年作物产量变化的农作物销售收益。通过从收入中扣除运营和运输成本，计算不同农业企业的潜在利润。我们的结论是，罗马时期温暖湿润的气候可能对公元前 2 世纪至公元 3 世纪期间葡萄酒和橄榄农场的盈利能力产生了极其有益的影响，但对谷物生产的影响较小。随后，在中世纪暖期小冰期（公元 4 世纪至 7 世纪）期间，农场的潜在盈利能力显著下降。将我们模型的结果与考古数据进行比较，使我们能够讨论这些气候波动对农业和经济增长的影响，然后讨论从古代早期到晚期南高卢的农业和经济衰退。
