Rousson Valentin, Hall Nicolas, Pasquier Mathieu
Center for Primary Care and Public Health (Unisanté), Lausanne, Switzerland.
Department of Emergency Medicine, Lausanne University Hospital, Lausanne, Switzerland.
Resusc Plus. 2024 Mar 23;18:100616. doi: 10.1016/j.resplu.2024.100616. eCollection 2024 Jun.
The HOPE score (https://www.hypothermiascore.org) is a validated instrument for estimating the survival probability of patients in hypothermic cardiac arrest with ECLS rewarming. It is based on six patient characteristics: sex, age, mechanism of hypothermia, duration of cardiopulmonary resuscitation, serum potassium and temperature. The HOPE score provides a reliable estimate of survival probability that can be used to decide whether to rewarm a patient. In the initial publication of the HOPE score, a cutoff of 10% was proposed, below which a patient would not be rewarmed. This choice was tentative and subject to debate. In this paper, we examine the implications of this choice on the proportions of false positives (i.e., rewarmed patient who ends up dying) and false negatives (i.e., non-rewarmed patients who would have survived if rewarmed), and we provide approximate formulas to obtain upper bounds for these proportions as a function of the cutoff chosen. In particular, the choice of a 10% cutoff will result in a proportion of FP of less than 40% and a proportion of FN of less than 0.5% in many practical situations.
