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中国独居老年人健康危险因素分析及列线图预测模型的建立与评价。

Analysis of health risk factors for older adults living alone in China and establishment and evaluation of a nomogram prediction model.

机构信息

School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, China.

Key Laboratory of Environmental Factors and Chronic Disease Control, Yinchuan, China.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2024 Mar 19;12:1309561. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1309561. eCollection 2024.

DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2024.1309561
PMID:38566800
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10986849/
Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To understand the health status of older adults living alone in China and analyze the influencing factors, so as to provide reference for improving the health status of older adults living alone.

METHODS

Based on CGSS data from China General Social Survey (2017), the influencing factors of health status of older adults living alone were analyzed by unconditional Logistic regression, and the R software was used to develop a nomogram for predicting the risk of self-assessed unhealthy adverse outcomes.

RESULTS

Gender, annual income, mandarin listening level and participation in medical insurance were the influencing factors of self-rated health of older adults living alone. Age and annual income are the influencing factors of physiological health. Annual income and Internet use were influential factors for mental health. C-Statistic of nomogram prediction model was 0.645. The calibration curve showed that goodness of fit test ( = 58.09,  < 0.001), and the overall prediction ability of the model was good.

CONCLUSION

The health status of older adults living alone in the home-based older adults care is worrying, and it is affected by various factors. We should pay more attention to older adults living alone, improve the ability of listening and distinguishing mandarin and the use of health information platforms for older adults living alone, and further implement medical insurance policies and health services. Announcing the solution to promote healthy home-based care for older adults living alone.

摘要

目的

了解中国独居老年人的健康状况,分析其影响因素,为改善独居老年人的健康状况提供参考。

方法

基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)2017 年的数据,采用非条件 Logistic 回归分析独居老年人健康状况的影响因素,并使用 R 软件建立预测自我评估不健康不良结局风险的列线图。

结果

性别、年收 入、普通话听说水平和参加医疗保险是独居老年人自评健康的影响因素。年龄和年收 入是生理健康的影响因素。年收 入和互联网使用是心理健康的影响因素。列线图预测模型的 C 统计量为 0.645。校准曲线显示拟合优度检验(=58.09,<0.001),模型的整体预测能力良好。

结论

居家养老的独居老年人健康状况令人担忧,受到多种因素的影响。应更加关注独居老年人,提高独居老年人普通话听说能力和健康信息平台使用能力,进一步实施医疗保险政策和健康服务。公布解决方案,促进独居老年人健康居家养老。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee06/10986849/563a6a973719/fpubh-12-1309561-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee06/10986849/ac32e276edf0/fpubh-12-1309561-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee06/10986849/563a6a973719/fpubh-12-1309561-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee06/10986849/ac32e276edf0/fpubh-12-1309561-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ee06/10986849/563a6a973719/fpubh-12-1309561-g002.jpg

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