Securing Antarctica's Environmental Future, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University, Clayton 3800, Victoria, Australia.
Section of Ecoinformatics and Biodiversity, Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus 8000, Denmark.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2024 May 27;379(1902):20230014. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2023.0014. Epub 2024 Apr 8.
In 2050, most areas of biodiversity significance will be heavily influenced by multiple drivers of environmental change. This includes overlap with the introduced ranges of many alien species that negatively impact biodiversity. With the decline in biodiversity and increase in all forms of global change, the need to envision the desired qualities of natural systems in the Anthropocene is growing, as is the need to actively maintain their natural values. Here, we draw on community ecology and invasion biology to (i) better understand trajectories of change in communities with a mix of native and alien populations, and (ii) to frame approaches to the stewardship of these mixed-species communities. We provide a set of premises and actions upon which a nature-positive future with biological invasions (NPF-BI) could be based, and a decision framework for dealing with uncertain species movements under climate change. A series of alternative management approaches become apparent when framed by scale-sensitive, spatially explicit, context relevant and risk-consequence considerations. Evidence of the properties of mixed-species communities together with predictive frameworks for the relative importance of the ecological processes at play provide actionable pathways to a NPF in which the reality of mixed-species communities are accommodated and managed. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.
到 2050 年，大多数具有生物多样性意义的地区将受到多种环境变化驱动因素的强烈影响。这包括与许多外来物种引入范围的重叠，这些物种对生物多样性产生负面影响。随着生物多样性的减少和各种形式的全球变化的增加，在人类世中设想自然系统所需的理想特性的需求正在增长，积极维护其自然价值的需求也在增长。在这里，我们借鉴群落生态学和入侵生物学，（i）更好地了解具有本地和外来种群混合的群落的变化轨迹，以及（ii）构建管理这些混合物种群落的方法。我们提出了一系列前提和行动，以此为基础建立一个具有生物入侵的正向自然未来（NPF-BI），并为应对气候变化下不确定的物种运动提供决策框架。当以对尺度敏感、空间明确、上下文相关和风险后果考虑为框架时，一系列替代管理方法变得明显。混合物种群落的特性的证据以及发挥作用的生态过程的相对重要性的预测框架为 NPF 提供了可行的途径，其中混合物种群落的现实情况得到了适应和管理。本文是主题为“生态新颖性和行星管理：转化生物圈中的生物多样性动态”的特刊的一部分。
