Kerr Matthew R, Ordonez Alejandro, Riede Felix, Atkinson Joe, Pearce Elena A, Sykut Maciej, Trepel Jonas, Svenning Jens-Christian
Center for Ecological Dynamics in a Novel Biosphere (ECONOVO), Department of Biology, Aarhus University, Aarhus C, Denmark.
Department of Archaeology and Heritage Studies, Aarhus University, Højbjerg, Denmark.
Nat Ecol Evol. 2025 Apr;9(4):589-598. doi: 10.1038/s41559-025-02662-2. Epub 2025 Mar 14.
Human activities have transformed many wild and semiwild ecosystems into novel states without historical precedent. Without knowing the current distribution of what drives the emergence of such novelty, predicting future ecosystem states and informing conservation and restoration policies remain difficult. Here we construct global maps of three key drivers generating novel conditions-climate change, defaunation and floristic disruption-and summarize them to a measure of total novelty exposure. We show that the terrestrial biosphere is widely exposed to novel conditions, with 58% of the total area exposed to high levels of total novelty. All climatic regions and biomes are exposed to substantial levels of novelty. Relative contributions of individual drivers vary between climatic regions, with climate changes and defaunation the largest contributors globally. Protected areas and key biodiversity areas, whether formally protected or not, have similar exposure, with high total novelty experienced in 58% of cells inside protected areas and 56% inside key biodiversity areas. Our results highlight the importance of investigating ecosystem and biodiversity responses to rising ecological novelty for informing actions towards biosphere stewardship.
人类活动已将许多野生和半野生生态系统转变为前所未有的新状态。由于不清楚驱动这种新状态出现的因素的当前分布情况,预测未来生态系统状态以及为保护和恢复政策提供信息仍然困难重重。在此,我们绘制了产生新条件的三个关键驱动因素——气候变化、动物群减少和植物区系破坏——的全球地图,并将它们汇总为一种衡量总体新状态暴露程度的指标。我们发现,陆地生物圈广泛面临新条件,58%的总面积面临高水平的总体新状态。所有气候区域和生物群落都面临着相当程度的新状态。各个驱动因素的相对贡献在不同气候区域有所不同,其中气候变化和动物群减少是全球最大的贡献因素。保护区和关键生物多样性区域,无论是否受到正式保护,其暴露程度相似,保护区内58%的单元以及关键生物多样性区域内56%的单元经历了高总体新状态。我们的研究结果凸显了调查生态系统和生物多样性对不断增加的生态新状态的反应对于指导生物圈管理行动的重要性。