Hepatic steatosis predicts metachronous liver metastasis in colorectal cancer patients: a nested case-control study and systematic review.

Nearly twenty-five percent of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients develop metachronous colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) after curative surgery. Hepatosteatosis is the most prevalent liver condition worldwide, but its impact on the incidence of metachronous CRLM is understudied. In the present study, we aimed to investigate the predictive value of hepatic steatosis on the development of metachronous CRLM. First, a nested case-control study was conducted, enrolling stage I to III CRC patients in the National Colorectal Cancer Cohort (NCRCC) database. Metachronous CRLM patients and recurrence-free patients were matched via propensity-score matching. Fatty liver was identified based on treatment-naïve CT scans and the degree of hepatic fibrosis was scored. Multivariable analysis was conducted to investigate the association between fatty liver and metachronous CRLM. In our database, a total of 414 patients were included. Metachronous CRLM patients had considerably higher rates of hepatic steatosis (30.9% versus 15.9%, P<0.001) and highly fibrotic liver (11.6% versus 2.9%, P=0.001) compared to recurrence-free patients. Multivariable analysis showed that fatty liver (odds ratios [OR]=1.99, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-3.30, P=0.008) and fibrotic liver (OR=4.27, 95% CI 1.54-11.81, P=0.005) were associated with high risk of metachronous CRLM. Further, a systematic literature review was performed to assess available evidence on the association between hepatosteatosis and development of metachronous CRLM. In the systematic review, 1815 patients were pooled from eligible studies, and hepatic steatosis remained a significant risk factor for metachronous CRLM (OR=1.90, 95% CI 1.35-2.66, P<0.001, I=25.3%). In conclusion, our data suggest that patients with a steatotic liver and a high fibrosis score at CRC diagnosis have elevated risk of developing metachronous CRLM.