Yusuf Noor, Govindan Rajesh, Al-Ansari Tareq
College of Science and Engineering, Hamad Bin Khalifa University, Qatar Foundation, Doha, Qatar.
Heliyon. 2024 Mar 17;10(7):e27682. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e27682. eCollection 2024 Apr 15.
The emergence of new suppliers and energy resources has reshaped the energy market in terms of contractual structures and pricing systems. The market shifts were accelerated in response to the latest Russian-Ukraine crisis, impacting natural gas supply chains from financing projects to contracting volumes. The increased demand for liquified natural gas volumes intensified the need to switch from long-term oil-indexed contracts to short-term gas-indexed contracts. Those shifts were anticipated to influence the selling strategies for the expected added 49 MTPA of Qatari LNG, wherein increasing the share of spot selling would be reflected in higher economic performance. This study used forecasted prices to investigate potential Qatari LNG selling strategies. Initially, projections of the most dominant pricing systems used for pricing Qatari LNG (i.e., brent, Henry Hub, Title Transfer Facility, and Japan Korea Marker) were estimated between 2023 and 2040. While Qatar has been relying on long-term oil-indexed contracts, the second step estimated annual LNG revenues under different combinations of selling strategies (i.e., long-term and spot sales). Finally, the influence of varying brent slopes on the estimated revenues was measured. Due to data limitations and non-stationarity, the double exponential smoothing model was selected among the different tested models. Considering current market dynamics, forecasts of the double exponential smoothing model showed an upward price trend until 2040. An annual average increase of 1.24% for the studied pricing systems was reported. Reducing the share of long-term brent-indexed contracts to 70% and dedicating the remaining 30% of volumes to spot sales yielded the highest premiums for revenue estimates. An average annual revenue of $62 bn was reported for the 70/30 strategy, around 6% higher than the 100% brent-indexed contracts strategy. The findings revealed that diversifying the selling approach and introducing spot sales can enhance revenues. From the buyers' perspective, the outcomes support policymakers in understanding the implications of escalated prices driven by a lack of liquidity investments.
新供应商和能源资源的出现，在合同结构和定价体系方面重塑了能源市场。市场转变因最新的俄乌危机而加速，影响了从融资项目到合同量的天然气供应链。液化天然气需求量的增加，强化了从长期石油指数合同转向短期天然气指数合同的必要性。预计这些转变将影响卡塔尔预计新增的4900万吨/年液化天然气的销售策略，其中增加现货销售份额将体现在更高的经济效益上。本研究使用预测价格来调查卡塔尔液化天然气的潜在销售策略。首先，对2023年至2040年期间用于卡塔尔液化天然气定价的最主要定价体系（即布伦特、亨利枢纽、所有权转让设施和日本韩国指标）进行了预测。虽然卡塔尔一直依赖长期石油指数合同，但第二步是估计不同销售策略组合（即长期和现货销售）下的年度液化天然气收入。最后，衡量了不同布伦特斜率对估计收入的影响。由于数据限制和非平稳性，在不同测试模型中选择了双指数平滑模型。考虑到当前市场动态，双指数平滑模型的预测显示，到2040年价格呈上升趋势。据报告，所研究的定价体系年均增长1.24%。将长期布伦特指数合同的份额降至70%，并将其余30%的量用于现货销售，在收入估计方面产生了最高溢价。70/30策略的年均收入报告为620亿美元，比100%布伦特指数合同策略高出约6%。研究结果表明，多样化销售方式和引入现货销售可以提高收入。从买家角度来看，这些结果有助于政策制定者理解因缺乏流动性投资导致价格上涨的影响。
