Department of ICU, Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Gusu School, Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Department of Medical Imaging, The Affiliated Suzhou Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou Municipal Hospital, Gusu School, Nanjing Medical University, Suzhou, Jiangsu, China.
Front Public Health. 2024 Mar 28;12:1302256. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1302256. eCollection 2024.
PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to develop an intelligent diagnosis model based on the LASSO method to predict the severity of COVID-19 patients. METHODS: The study uses the clinical data of 500 COVID-19 patients from a designated hospital in Guangzhou, China, and selects eight features, including age, sex, dyspnea, comorbidity, complication, lymphocytes (LYM), CRP, and lung injury score, as the most important predictors of COVID-19 severity. The study applies the LASSO method to perform feature selection and regularization, and compares the LASSO method with other machine learning methods, such as ridge regression, support vector machine, and random forest. RESULTS: The study finds that the ridge regression model has the best performance among the four models, with an AUROC of 0.92 in the internal validation and 0.91 in the external validation. CONCLUSION: The study provides a simple, robust, and interpretable model for the intelligent diagnosis of COVID-19 severity, and a convenient and practical tool for the public and the health care workers to assess COVID-19 severity. However, the study also has some limitations and directions for future research, such as the need for more data from different sources and settings, and from prospective, longitudinal, multi-class classification models. The study hopes to contribute to the prevention and control of COVID-19, and to the improvement of the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 patients.
目的:本研究旨在开发一种基于 LASSO 方法的智能诊断模型,以预测 COVID-19 患者的严重程度。
方法:本研究使用了来自中国广州一家指定医院的 500 名 COVID-19 患者的临床数据,并选择了年龄、性别、呼吸困难、合并症、并发症、淋巴细胞 (LYM)、C 反应蛋白 (CRP) 和肺部损伤评分等 8 个特征作为 COVID-19 严重程度的最重要预测因子。本研究应用 LASSO 方法进行特征选择和正则化,并将 LASSO 方法与其他机器学习方法(如岭回归、支持向量机和随机森林)进行比较。
结果:本研究发现,在这四个模型中,岭回归模型的性能最好,内部验证的 AUROC 为 0.92,外部验证的 AUROC 为 0.91。
结论:本研究为 COVID-19 严重程度的智能诊断提供了一种简单、稳健且可解释的模型,为公众和卫生保健工作者评估 COVID-19 严重程度提供了一种方便实用的工具。然而,本研究也存在一些局限性和未来研究的方向,例如需要来自不同来源和设置的更多数据,以及来自前瞻性、纵向、多类分类模型的数据。本研究希望为 COVID-19 的预防和控制,以及 COVID-19 患者的诊断和治疗提供帮助。
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