Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Nicotine Tob Res. 2024 Sep 23;26(10):1412-1419. doi: 10.1093/ntr/ntae090.
The prevalence of adolescent nicotine vaping declined substantially after the COVID-19 pandemic onset in the United States during the Spring of 2020. This study examines whether the decline continued from 2022 to 2023, and the extent to which any decline reflects the lasting influence of lowered levels of initiation 3 years earlier, at the onset of the pandemic.
Data for this study come from nationally representative, cross-sectional surveys of U.S. 12th-grade (n = 9854) and 10th-grade (n = 14 663) students administered in the Spring of 2022 and 2023. The main outcomes are past 12-month nicotine vaping and grade first ever vaped nicotine.
From 2022 to 2023 prevalence of past 12-month nicotine vaping declined a relative 20% for 12th-grade students, from 24.3% to 19.1%, and for 10th-grade students by a relative 16%, from 17.8% to 15.1%. Among 12th-grade students who vaped nicotine in the past 12 months, a significant decline in prevalence took place only among those who first ever vaped nicotine in ninth grade, and not among those who first ever vaped nicotine in any other grade. Among 10th grade students who vaped nicotine in the past 12 months, a significant decline in prevalence took place only among those who first ever vaped nicotine in seventh grade, and not among those who first ever vaped nicotine in any other grade.
These results contribute national-level evidence that forestalled initiation of nicotine use for 1 year may have a lasting effect that continues to lower adolescents' levels of use many years afterward.
These findings caution against looking to contemporaneous policy for explanations of the large, 1-year decline in nicotine vaping from 2022 to 2023. It can be tempting to interpret the decline as a victory for current efforts to restrict adolescent access to vaping products, or current education/media campaigns that warn adolescents of the dangers of vaping. The findings of this study suggest, instead, that the 1-year vaping declines primarily result from declines in initiation that were set into place 3 years ago during the pandemic onset, more so than the immediate result of contemporaneous policy.
2020 年春季美国 COVID-19 大流行期间，青少年尼古丁蒸气吸入的流行率大幅下降。本研究旨在探讨 2022 年至 2023 年期间这一下降趋势是否持续，以及任何下降在多大程度上反映了 3 年前大流行开始时初始水平降低的持久影响。
本研究的数据来自于 2022 年和 2023 年春季对美国 12 年级（n=9854）和 10 年级（n=14663）学生进行的全国代表性横断面调查。主要结果是过去 12 个月尼古丁蒸气吸入和首次吸入尼古丁的年级。
从 2022 年到 2023 年，12 年级学生过去 12 个月尼古丁蒸气吸入的流行率相对下降了 20%，从 24.3%降至 19.1%，10 年级学生相对下降了 16%，从 17.8%降至 15.1%。在过去 12 个月内吸食尼古丁的 12 年级学生中，只有那些在 9 年级首次吸食尼古丁的学生中，流行率显著下降，而在任何其他年级首次吸食尼古丁的学生中，流行率没有显著下降。在过去 12 个月内吸食尼古丁的 10 年级学生中，只有那些在 7 年级首次吸食尼古丁的学生中，流行率显著下降，而在任何其他年级首次吸食尼古丁的学生中，流行率没有显著下降。
这些结果提供了国家级证据，表明预防尼古丁使用 1 年可能会产生持久的效果，使青少年多年后继续降低尼古丁的使用水平。
这些发现告诫人们不要将尼古丁蒸气吸入从 2022 年到 2023 年的大幅下降归因于同期政策。将下降解释为当前限制青少年使用蒸气产品的努力的胜利，或者当前警告青少年蒸气危害的教育/媒体运动的胜利，这是很诱人的。本研究的结果表明，1 年内蒸气使用率的下降主要是由于 3 年前大流行开始时初始使用率的下降造成的，而不是同期政策的直接结果。
