Event detection in football: Improving the reliability of match analysis.

With recent technological advancements, quantitative analysis has become an increasingly important area within professional sports. However, the manual process of collecting data on relevant match events like passes, goals and tacklings comes with considerable costs and limited consistency across providers, affecting both research and practice. In football, while automatic detection of events from positional data of the players and the ball could alleviate these issues, it is not entirely clear what accuracy current state-of-the-art methods realistically achieve because there is a lack of high-quality validations on realistic and diverse data sets. This paper adds context to existing research by validating a two-step rule-based pass and shot detection algorithm on four different data sets using a comprehensive validation routine that accounts for the temporal, hierarchical and imbalanced nature of the task. Our evaluation shows that pass and shot detection performance is highly dependent on the specifics of the data set. In accordance with previous studies, we achieve F-scores of up to 0.92 for passes, but only when there is an inherent dependency between event and positional data. We find a significantly lower accuracy with F-scores of 0.71 for passes and 0.65 for shots if event and positional data are independent. This result, together with a critical evaluation of existing methodologies, suggests that the accuracy of current football event detection algorithms operating on positional data is currently overestimated. Further analysis reveals that the temporal extraction of passes and shots from positional data poses the main challenge for rule-based approaches. Our results further indicate that the classification of plays into shots and passes is a relatively straightforward task, achieving F-scores between 0.83 to 0.91 ro rule-based classifiers and up to 0.95 for machine learning classifiers. We show that there exist simple classifiers that accurately differentiate shots from passes in different data sets using a low number of human-understandable rules. Operating on basic spatial features, our classifiers provide a simple, objective event definition that can be used as a foundation for more reliable event-based match analysis.