Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
Minnesota Aquatic Invasive Species Research Center, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota, USA.
Conserv Biol. 2024 Aug;38(4):e14260. doi: 10.1111/cobi.14260. Epub 2024 Apr 18.
Aquatic invasive species (AIS) are one of the greatest threats to the functioning of aquatic ecosystems worldwide. Once an invasive species has been introduced to a new region, many governments develop management strategies to reduce further spread. Nevertheless, managing AIS in a new region is challenging because of the vast areas that need protection and limited resources. Spatial heterogeneity in invasion risk is driven by environmental suitability and propagule pressure, which can be used to prioritize locations for surveillance and intervention activities. To better understand invasion risk across aquatic landscapes, we developed a simulation model to estimate the likelihood of a waterbody becoming invaded with an AIS. The model included waterbodies connected via a multilayer network that included boater movements and hydrological connections. In a case study of Minnesota, we used zebra mussels (Dreissena polymorpha) and starry stonewort (Nitellopsis obtusa) as model species. We simulated the impacts of management scenarios developed by stakeholders and created a decision-support tool available through an online application provided as part of the AIS Explorer dashboard. Our baseline model revealed that 89% of new zebra mussel invasions and 84% of new starry stonewort invasions occurred through boater movements, establishing it as a primary pathway of spread and offering insights beyond risk estimates generated by traditional environmental suitability models alone. Our results highlight the critical role of interventions applied to boater movements to reduce AIS dispersal.
水生入侵物种（AIS）是对全球水生生态系统功能的最大威胁之一。一旦入侵物种被引入一个新的地区，许多政府就会制定管理策略来减少其进一步传播。然而，由于需要保护的区域广泛且资源有限，管理新地区的 AIS 具有挑战性。入侵风险的空间异质性是由环境适宜性和繁殖体压力驱动的，这可以用来优先考虑监测和干预活动的地点。为了更好地了解水生景观中的入侵风险，我们开发了一个模拟模型来估计水体被 AIS 入侵的可能性。该模型包括通过包括划船者运动和水文连接的多层网络连接的水体。在明尼苏达州的案例研究中，我们使用斑马贻贝（Dreissena polymorpha）和星状苦草（Nitellopsis obtusa）作为模型物种。我们模拟了利益相关者制定的管理方案的影响，并创建了一个决策支持工具，该工具可通过 AIS Explorer 仪表板提供的在线应用程序获得。我们的基线模型显示，89%的新斑马贻贝入侵和 84%的新星状苦草入侵是通过划船者运动发生的，这确立了它作为主要传播途径，并提供了超出传统环境适宜性模型单独生成的风险估计的见解。我们的研究结果强调了针对划船者运动进行干预以减少 AIS 扩散的关键作用。
