Department of Chemical and Life Science, Qurtuba University of Science & Information Technology, Peshawar, KP, Pakistan.
Department of Botany, Women Campus Charbagh, University of Swat, Kp, Pakistan.
Int J Biometeorol. 2024 Aug;68(8):1545-1558. doi: 10.1007/s00484-024-02683-9. Epub 2024 Apr 24.
The Hindu Kush high-altitude regions of Pakistan are currently experiencing severe consequences as a result of global warming. In this sense, increasing soil erosion and the quick melting of glaciers are two particularly evident effects. In such a scenario, understanding long-term temperature changes is crucial for making accurate forecasts about how the Hindu Kush region may experience regional temperature changes in the future. In this study, the climate tree-ring width (TRW) analysis designated a positive and significant correlation (r = 0.622, p < 0.001) between the TRW chronology and the June to September (summer) mean maximum temperature (MMT). Using the tree-ring width of Pinus wallichiana A. B. Jackson, we reconstructed summer temperatures in the Hindu Kush region from 1790 CE. Statistical analysis showed that the reconstruction model has explained 38.7% of the climate variance during the instrumental period of 1967 to 2018 CE. Five extremely warm summer periods (≥ 4 years; before the instrumental period 1967-2018 CE) of 1804-1830, 1839-1862, 1876-1879, 1905-1910, 1923-1935 CE, and six cold summer periods of 1790-1803, 1832-1838, 1863-1875, 1880-1904, 1911-1922, and 1936-1945 CE have been observed during the past 229 years. Individually, the year 1856 CE experienced severe warmth (31.85 °C), whereas 1794 CE was relatively cooler (29.60 °C). The spectral multi-taper method (MTM) shows significant (p < 0.05) cycles, which take place about every 9.3, 5.7, 4.2, and 3.6 years. In particular, the 9.3-year cycle, which closely aligns with the 11-year solar activity cycle, suggests a potential correlation between solar activity and local temperature fluctuations. Moreover, our reconstruction demonstrates a significant degree of consistency when compared to actual climate data and regional temperature reconstruction series, reporting a strong logic of trust in the reliability and accuracy of our findings. This evidence reaffirms that our reconstruction shows significant and dependable regional temperature signals, notably being representative for the Hindu Kush region.
巴基斯坦兴都库什高海拔地区正遭受全球变暖带来的严重后果。在这种情况下，土壤侵蚀加剧和冰川迅速融化是两个尤为明显的影响。在这种情况下，了解长期温度变化对于准确预测兴都库什地区未来的区域温度变化至关重要。在这项研究中，气候树木年轮宽度（TRW）分析表明，树木年轮年表与 6 月至 9 月（夏季）平均最高温度（MMT）之间存在正显著相关（r=0.622，p<0.001）。利用白皮松的树木年轮宽度，我们重建了 1790 年以来兴都库什地区的夏季温度。统计分析表明，该重建模型在 1967 年至 2018 年的仪器记录期间解释了 38.7%的气候方差。重建模型发现了 5 个异常温暖的夏季时期（≥4 年；在仪器记录 1967-2018 年之前），1804-1830、1839-1862、1876-1879、1905-1910、1923-1935 年 CE，和 6 个寒冷的夏季时期，1790-1803、1832-1838、1863-1875、1880-1904、1911-1922、1936-1945 年 CE。在过去的 229 年中，1856 年经历了严重的暖期（31.85°C），而 1794 年相对较冷（29.60°C）。多谱线方法（MTM）显示出显著（p<0.05）的周期，大约每 9.3、5.7、4.2 和 3.6 年发生一次。特别是与太阳活动周期紧密相关的 9.3 年周期，表明太阳活动与当地温度波动之间可能存在关联。此外，我们的重建结果与实际气候数据和区域温度重建系列非常吻合，这表明我们的研究结果具有很强的可信度。这一证据再次证实，我们的重建结果显示出显著而可靠的区域温度信号，特别是对兴都库什地区具有代表性。
