Steiglechner Peter, Keijzer Marijn A, E Smaldino Paul, Moser Deyshawn, Merico Agostino
Leibniz Centre for Tropical Marine Research (ZMT), Bremen, Germany.
Constructor University, Bremen, Germany.
R Soc Open Sci. 2024 Apr 24;11(4):231071. doi: 10.1098/rsos.231071. eCollection 2024 Apr.
Opinion dynamics are affected by cognitive biases and noise. While mathematical models have focused extensively on biases, we still know surprisingly little about how noise shapes opinion patterns. Here, we use an agent-based opinion dynamics model to investigate the interplay between confirmation bias-represented as bounded confidence-and different types of noise. After analysing where noise can enter social interaction, we propose a type of noise that has not been discussed so far, ambiguity noise. While previously considered types of noise acted on agents either before, after or independent of social interaction, ambiguity noise acts on communicated messages, assuming that socially transmitted opinions are inherently noisy. We find that noise can induce agreement when confirmation bias is moderate, but different types of noise require quite different conditions for this effect to occur. An application of our model to the climate change debate shows that at just the right mix of confirmation bias and ambiguity noise, opinions tend to converge to high levels of climate change concern. This result is not observed with the other types. Our findings highlight the importance of considering and distinguishing between the various types of noise and the unique role of ambiguity in opinion formation.
观点动态受到认知偏差和噪声的影响。虽然数学模型广泛关注偏差，但我们对噪声如何塑造观点模式仍然知之甚少。在这里，我们使用基于主体的观点动态模型来研究以有限信心表示的确认偏差与不同类型噪声之间的相互作用。在分析了噪声可能进入社会互动的位置后，我们提出了一种迄今为止尚未讨论过的噪声类型，即模糊性噪声。虽然之前考虑的噪声类型要么在社会互动之前、之后作用于主体，要么独立于社会互动作用于主体，但模糊性噪声作用于传达的信息，假设社会传播的观点本质上是有噪声的。我们发现，当确认偏差适中时，噪声可以诱导达成一致，但不同类型的噪声需要相当不同的条件才能产生这种效果。我们的模型在气候变化辩论中的应用表明，在确认偏差和模糊性噪声的恰当组合下，观点往往会趋向于高度关注气候变化。其他类型的噪声则不会出现这种结果。我们的研究结果凸显了考虑和区分各种类型噪声的重要性，以及模糊性在观点形成中的独特作用。
