School of Management, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230026, PR China.
School of Public Affairs, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui Province, 230026, PR China.
J Environ Manage. 2024 May;359:120885. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.120885. Epub 2024 Apr 25.
The stabilization of growth and preservation of employment are the primary objectives of the current new economic normal. Investigating whether the low-carbon transition can be an opportunity or a shock for employment expansion in green development requires thorough examination. This study utilizes multi-temporal difference-in-difference (DID) models, analyzing comprehensive panel data from China (2007-2019) to assess the impact of the Low-carbon City Pilot (LCCP) policy on employment at meso-regional and micro-firm levels. Empirical findings robustly reveal that LCCP significantly boosts employment, with average treatment effects of approximately 0.548% and 5.892% at regional and firm scales, respectively. Positive impacts vary based on ownership, location, industry type, and energy consumption within enterprises. Notably, state-owned enterprises, those in the eastern region, engaged in secondary industries, and with high energy consumption experience pronounced positive effects. Mechanism analysis further reveals that LCCP boosts employment via promoting government environmental subsidies and expanding enterprise investment scale to create more jobs. These findings provide policy recommendations for further promoting low-carbon transition and expanding employment to achieve the win-win goal of sustainable development.
稳定增长和保障就业是当前新经济常态的主要目标。探讨低碳转型对于绿色发展中扩大就业是机遇还是冲击，需要进行深入研究。本研究利用多时差双重差分（DID）模型，基于中国（2007-2019 年）的综合面板数据，评估低碳城市试点（LCCP）政策对中观区域和微观企业层面就业的影响。实证结果稳健表明，LCCP 显著促进了就业，在区域和企业层面的平均处理效应分别约为 0.548%和 5.892%。积极影响因所有制、地理位置、产业类型和企业能源消耗而异。值得注意的是，国有企业、东部地区企业、从事第二产业和高能耗企业的积极影响显著。机制分析进一步表明，LCCP 通过促进政府环境补贴和扩大企业投资规模来创造更多就业机会，从而促进了就业。这些发现为进一步推动低碳转型和扩大就业以实现可持续发展的双赢目标提供了政策建议。
