Ren Weizhen, Wan Shilong, Zhang Zilong, Yang Zhaoqian
Key Laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems (Ministry of Education), College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Tianshui South Road 222, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
Institute of Carbon Peak & Carbon Neutrality, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 May;31(23):33414-33427. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-33459-8. Epub 2024 Apr 29.
The mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO) generated from household consumption, accounting for 52% of China's total greenhouse gas emissions, plays a pivotal role in China's pursuit of reaching a carbon peak by 2030. The study used three waves of nationally representative longitudinal data, energy statistics data, and input-output table to estimate household CO emissions (HCEs) in China at the micro-scale. The dynamic relationship between household consumption pattern transition and HCEs per capita was explored by applying maximum likelihood and structural equation modeling (ML-SEM) with panel data. The results indicate that per capita HCE level in a given year appears to be positively associated with HCE level for the same household in the previous year. A U-shaped relationship between consumption pattern transition and HCEs per capita was confirmed, as well as the reinforcement effect of income on the impacts of consumption pattern transition. The increase in consumption propensity, household income, share of wage-income, household asset values, and house space results in higher HCEs per capita. The family size and dependency ratio have a negative relationship with HCEs, whereas households that are female-oriented and more Internet-dependent tend to produce more CO. Exploring the consumption transition of households is crucial for reducing CO emissions at the household level in China.
家庭消费产生的二氧化碳（CO）减排在中国实现2030年碳达峰目标中起着关键作用，家庭消费产生的二氧化碳占中国温室气体排放总量的52%。该研究使用了三轮具有全国代表性的纵向数据、能源统计数据和投入产出表，在微观层面估算中国家庭的二氧化碳排放量（HCEs）。通过应用最大似然法和面板数据结构方程模型（ML-SEM），探讨了家庭消费模式转变与人均HCEs之间的动态关系。结果表明，某一年的人均HCE水平似乎与同一家庭上一年的HCE水平呈正相关。研究证实了消费模式转变与人均HCEs之间呈U形关系，以及收入对消费模式转变影响的强化作用。消费倾向、家庭收入、工资收入份额,家庭资产价值和住房面积的增加导致人均HCEs升高。家庭规模和抚养比与HCEs呈负相关，而以女性为主且互联网依赖程度更高的家庭往往产生更多的CO。探索家庭消费转型对于中国家庭层面的二氧化碳减排至关重要。
