Ge Xiangyu, Ding Jianli, Amantai Nigenare, Xiong Ju, Wang Jingzhe
College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, China.
Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, China.
Front Plant Sci. 2024 Apr 16;15:1323445. doi: 10.3389/fpls.2024.1323445. eCollection 2024.
Amidst the backdrop of global climate change, it is imperative to comprehend the intricate connections among surface water, vegetation, and climatic shifts within watersheds, especially in fragile, arid ecosystems. However, these relationships across various timescales remain unclear. We employed the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) method to analyze the multifaceted dynamics of surface water and vegetation in the Bosten Lake Watershed across multiple temporal scales. This analysis has shed light on how these elements interact with climate change, revealing significant insights. From March to October, approximately 14.9-16.8% of the areas with permanent water were susceptible to receding and drying up. Both the annual and monthly values of Bosten Lake's level and area exhibited a trend of initial decline followed by an increase, reaching their lowest point in 2013 (1,045.0 m and 906.6 km2, respectively). Approximately 7.7% of vegetated areas showed a significant increase in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). NDVI volatility was observed in 23.4% of vegetated areas, primarily concentrated in the southern part of the study area and near Lake Bosten. Regarding the annual components (6 < T < 24 months), temperature, 3-month cumulative NDVI, and 3-month-leading precipitation exhibited the strongest correlation with changes in water level and surface area. For the interannual components (T≥ 24 months), NDVI, 3-month cumulative precipitation, and 3-month-leading temperature displayed the most robust correlation with alterations in water level and surface area. In both components, NDVI had a negative impact on Bosten Lake's water level and surface area, while temperature and precipitation exerted positive effects. Through comparative analysis, this study reveals the importance of temporal periodicity in developing adaptive strategies for achieving Sustainable Development Goals in dryland watersheds. This study introduces a robust methodology for dissecting trends within scale components of lake level and surface area and links these trends to climate variations and NDVI changes across different temporal scales. The inherent correlations uncovered in this research can serve as valuable guidance for future investigations into surface water dynamics in arid regions.
在全球气候变化的背景下，必须了解流域内地表水、植被和气候变化之间的复杂联系，特别是在脆弱的干旱生态系统中。然而，这些跨不同时间尺度的关系仍不明确。我们采用集合经验模态分解（EEMD）方法，分析了博斯腾湖流域地表水和植被在多个时间尺度上的多方面动态。该分析揭示了这些要素与气候变化的相互作用方式，得出了重要见解。3月至10月，约14.9%-16.8%的常年有水区域易出现退缩和干涸。博斯腾湖水位和面积的年值和月值均呈现先下降后上升的趋势，2013年达到最低点（水位1045.0米，面积906.6平方千米）。约7.7%的植被覆盖区域的归一化植被指数（NDVI）显著增加。在23.4%的植被覆盖区域观察到NDVI波动，主要集中在研究区域南部和博斯腾湖附近。对于年分量（6<T<24个月），温度、3个月累积NDVI和提前3个月的降水量与水位和表面积变化的相关性最强。对于年际分量（T≥24个月），NDVI、3个月累积降水量和提前3个月的温度与水位和表面积变化的相关性最为显著。在这两个分量中，NDVI对博斯腾湖的水位和表面积有负面影响，而温度和降水则产生正面影响。通过比较分析，本研究揭示了时间周期性在制定旱地流域可持续发展目标适应策略中的重要性。本研究引入了一种强大的方法来剖析湖水位和表面积尺度分量内的趋势，并将这些趋势与不同时间尺度上的气候变化和NDVI变化联系起来。本研究发现的内在相关性可为未来干旱地区地表水动态研究提供有价值的指导。
