Institute of Desert Meteorology, Desert Meteorology Field Scientific Experimental Bases of The Taklimakan Desert, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi, 830002, China.
State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, 830011, China.
Sci Rep. 2018 Jun 14;8(1):9118. doi: 10.1038/s41598-018-27466-2.
Bosten Lake, the largest inland freshwater lake in China, has experienced drastic change over the past five decades. Based on the lake water balance model and climate elasticity method, we identify annual changes in the lake's water components during 1961-2016 and investigate its water balance. We find a complex pattern in the lake's water: a decrease (1961-1987), a rapid increase (1988-2002), a drastic decrease (2003-2012), and a recent drastic increase (2013-2016). We also estimated the lake's water balance, finding that the drastic changes are caused by a climate-driven regime shift coupled with human disturbance. The changes in the lake accelerated after 1987, which may have been driven by regional climate wetting. During 2003 to 2012, implementation of the ecological water conveyance project (EWCP) significantly increased the lake's outflow, while a decreased precipitation led to an increased drought frequency. The glacier retreating trend accelerated by warming, and caused large variations in the observed lake's changes in recent years. Furthermore, wastewater emissions may give rise to water degradation, human activity is completely changing the natural water cycle system in the Bosten Lake. Indeed, the future of Bosten Lake is largely dependent on mankind.
博斯腾湖是中国最大的内陆淡水湖，在过去五十年中经历了剧烈的变化。基于湖泊水量平衡模型和气候弹性方法，我们确定了 1961-2016 年期间湖泊水成分的年度变化，并调查了其水量平衡。我们发现湖泊水的情况非常复杂：减少（1961-1987），快速增加（1988-2002），急剧减少（2003-2012），以及最近的急剧增加（2013-2016）。我们还估算了湖泊的水量平衡，发现这些剧烈变化是由气候驱动的体制转变与人类干扰共同造成的。1987 年后，湖泊变化加速，这可能是由区域气候变湿驱动的。2003 年至 2012 年期间，生态调水工程（EWCP）的实施显著增加了湖泊的流出量，而降水减少导致干旱频率增加。变暖导致冰川退缩趋势加速，近年来湖泊观测变化较大。此外，废水排放可能导致水质恶化，人类活动正在完全改变博斯腾湖的自然水循环系统。事实上，博斯腾湖的未来在很大程度上取决于人类。
