Academy of Agricultural Planning and Engineering, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Beijing, 100125, China.
College of Land Science and Technology, China Agricultural University, Beijing, 100193, China; Key Laboratory for Agricultural Land Quality, Ministry of Natural Resources, Beijing, 100193, China.
Environ Res. 2024 Jul 1;252(Pt 3):118982. doi: 10.1016/j.envres.2024.118982. Epub 2024 Apr 30.
The surge in non-grain production on farmland (NGPF) poses significant threats to food security and land sustainability, particularly in hilly regions. However, there remains a lack of clarity on how to effectively balance grain and non-grain production in relation to land remediation. Using Wannian County as a case study, we investigate the evolution of this by leveraging high-precision land surveys and satellite imagery. Through the application of bootstrapped partial linear regression models, we identify key influencers behind each type of NGPF. In proposing land remediation solutions, we integrate the results of NGPF and land quality evaluations to identify mismatches between non-grain production and land attributes (i.e., topography, geology, soil, and land use). Our findings reveal a substantial growth in NGPF, expanding from 3838.72 ha to 5659.64 ha (2010-2020), and predominantly occurring on farmland with favorable natural conditions and connected locations such as proximity to roads, town centers, and industrial plants. Surprisingly, the basic farmland protection policy shows limited effectiveness in curbing NGPF, except for garden operations. We identify 1674 NGPF patches suitable for conversion to grain production and provide land remediation suggestions tailored to low-quality farmland with specific natural barriers, thus complementing the demand for regional non-grain production. This study thereby innovatively proposes nature-based land remediation strategies to address the non-grain production dilemma by tailoring NGPF and land quality, offering valuable insights for sustainable farmland management in China and beyond.
农田的非粮生产（NGPF）剧增对粮食安全和土地可持续性构成了重大威胁，尤其是在丘陵地区。然而，对于如何在土地整治方面有效地平衡粮食和非粮生产，仍存在诸多不确定性。本研究以万年县为例，利用高精度土地调查和卫星图像，探讨了这一演变过程。通过应用自举偏最小二乘回归模型，我们确定了每种 NGPF 的关键影响因素。在提出土地整治解决方案时，我们整合了 NGPF 和土地质量评估的结果，以识别非粮生产与土地属性（如地形、地质、土壤和土地利用）之间的不匹配。研究结果表明，NGPF 从 2010 年的 3838.72 公顷增长到 2020 年的 5659.64 公顷，增长显著，主要发生在自然条件较好和位置便利的农田上，如靠近道路、城镇中心和工业厂房。令人惊讶的是，基本农田保护政策除了对园地经营有一定的限制作用外，对 NGPF 的遏制作用有限。我们确定了 1674 个适合转化为粮食生产的 NGPF 斑块，并提供了针对具有特定自然障碍的低质量农田的土地整治建议，从而补充了区域非粮生产的需求。本研究创新性地提出了基于自然的土地整治策略，通过调整 NGPF 和土地质量，解决了非粮生产的困境，为中国乃至全球的可持续农田管理提供了有价值的见解。
