An in silico approach to elucidate the pathways leading to primary osteoporosis: age-related vs. postmenopausal.

Numerical models of bone remodelling have traditionally been used to perform in silico tests of bone loss in postmenopausal women and also to simulate the response to different drug treatments. These models simulate the menopausal oestrogen decline by altering certain signalling pathways. However, they do not consider the simultaneous effect that ageing can have on cell function and bone remodelling, and thus on bone loss. Considering ageing and oestrogen decline together is important for designing osteoporosis treatments that can selectively counteract one or the other disease mechanism. A previously developed bone cell population model was adapted to consider the effect of ageing through: (1) the decrease of TGF- contained in the bone matrix and (2) an increased production of sclerostin by non-skeletal cells. Oestrogen deficiency is simulated in three different ways: (a) an increase in RANKL expression, (b) a decrease in OPG production, and (c) an increase in the responsiveness of osteoclasts to RANKL. The effect of ageing was validated using the cross-sectional study of (Riggs et al. in J Bone Miner Res 19: 1945-1954, 2004) on BMD of trabecular bone of the vertebral body of men. The joint effect of ageing and oestrogen deficiency was validated using these same clinical results but in women. In ageing, the effect of the increasing production of sclerostin is more important than the decrease of TGF- , while the three mechanisms used to simulate the effect of oestrogen deficiency produce almost identical responses. The results show that an early menopause leads to a lower average density in the fifth decade, but after the sixth decade the average density is independent of the age at menopause. Treatment of osteoporosis with denosumab was also simulated to conclude that the drug is not very effective if started before 10 years after menopause or before age 60.